Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Observe Inflation Data, Trading Interest Rates Hike, Physical AI Track Shows Active Performance
[Anatomy Dashboard]
Generally, before sensitive data is released, the market mostly goes ahead with the worst expectations. Whether it's US stocks or A-shares, this is the trend. To be honest, A-shares feel like they have fallen too far. Even if the US raises interest rates, will we follow suit? If the exchange rate is stable, there is no need to raise interest rates. Hong Kong stocks are definitely following suit; today the Hang Seng Index fell 0.60%.
US PPI increased 5.4% year-on-year in August, estimated at 5.3%, compared to 4.7% previously. It directly increased the market's bets on interest rate hikes. However, the most important thing is to look at the US CPI for August, which was announced at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time this evening. Economists' median forecast was 2.4% year over year, and the market priced the probability of falling short of expectations (2.3% and below) being significantly higher than expected (2.5% and above). As long as the data doesn't deviate in particular, the Federal Reserve has a solution. According to the trend of US stocks, it is likely that it will drop a little more, and eventually end up on hold. But right now, the market is trading according to interest rate hikes.
The situation in the Middle East is now showing signs of easing. On the one hand, the foreign ministers of the six Gulf countries are planning to meet with Iran's foreign ministers next Monday, which may be expected to sign an interim agreement on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; on the other hand, the Houthis in Yemen claim to have issued a statement that the exchange of fire between provinces on the west coast of the Red Sea has stopped, and that the armed forces previously mobilized by Saudi Arabia to threaten the relevant regions of Yemen have been expelled. Brent crude oil continued its decline and the intraday decline extended to 3%. Everyone gave a nod, and ending up to death is not in the interests of all parties.
As a result, Hong Kong stocks did not drop much today, and there was no panic. The performance of several giants, such as Tencent (00700), Xiaomi (01810), and Ali (09988), all rose slightly.
In this environment, as was yesterday's view, south-bound capital is working. The varieties in focus continue to wobble in this batch of new entrants. In this round of the new Hong Kong Stock Connect list, Physical AI track companies appeared in clusters — Huayan Robotics (01021), Aixin Yuanzhi (00600), Ledong Robotics (01236), Xiangong Intelligence (06106), Galax Technology (02729), and Qianjie Electronics (06675). These companies cover the entire industry chain from AI chip design, robot brain algorithms, visual perception systems, motion control technology to the core components of humanoid robots and intelligent logistics execution. This means that for the first time, a complete investment context spanning the upper, middle and lower reaches of Physical AI has been fully opened up to the south.
It also has catalytic factors. The 16th Smart City and Smart Economy Expo will be held in Ningbo from September 11th to 13th. The first “human-robot symbiosis” exhibition area with the theme of “AI Intelligent Transformation, Gathering the Future” will bring together nearly 10 leading companies in the industry, including Deep Cloud, Aixin Yuanzhi, Boden Intelligence, and Bionic to focus on showcasing the full chain of capabilities from the robot's “brain”, “cerebellum” and “trunk” to the complete machine.
Yesterday, Xiangong Intelligence (06106), which has a robotic “brain” concept, surged. Today, the market is also speculating on the robot “cerebellum” Huayan Robot (01021). The company recently released a next-generation HRC platform for the robot “cerebellum” in the intelligent era, which won the Golden Bull Award for overseas innovation from a Hong Kong stock listed company. The company has gradually grown from a single collaborative robot manufacturer to a platform-based robot company with collaborative robots as the base of scale and core motion components and motion control capabilities as the core of growth. This is one of the biggest gaps in current market expectations. Today, it surged more than 25%; Galaxis Technology (02729): Starting with the R&D and manufacturing of MSR multi-directional shuttle robots, the company has now built three core product lines covering AMR autonomous mobile robots, VFR extremely narrow aisle fork robots, and CSR transportation and sorting robots, forming a “hardware+software+artificial intelligence” full-stack solution capability, serving smart logistics upgrades in diverse industries such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, new energy, pan-electronics, footwear and textile, food and beverage. Today's increase is over 17%.
The popularity of the above robots has driven Sidi Smart Driving (03881): The company has upgraded its positioning from autonomous driving for commercial vehicles to “heavy duty physical intelligence”. The product has developed along “heavy duty autonomous driving - intelligent transportation of heavy equipment”. The high increase in unmanned mining card infrastructure has opened up a second growth curve with superimposed work robots and ecological cooperation. The company's profit inflection point is approaching, and the platform-based narrative continues to strengthen. Today, it has increased by more than 9%.
In other directions, Qiangjie Electronics (06675) is the world's top supplier in the field of wireless sensing SoCs, focusing on physical AI endside sensing chips. In the first half of the year, SENASIC smart cell end side chip revenue surged 114%, and smart tire chip revenue was about 110 million yuan, up 21.7% year on year; smart general sensor chip revenue was about 48.7 million yuan, up 23.4% year on year, and all three product lines maintained steady growth of more than 20%. Losses narrowed to about 6 million yuan in half a year. Today's increase is over 11%.
Yesterday's section focused on MLCC leader Murata Manufacturing, which recently officially issued an official notice announcing the launch of product line optimization in the 2026 fiscal year, which will discontinue production of some MLCC products and expand other production capacity. The scope of this discontinuation covers specific parts numbers in consumer-grade conventional series and automotive specification series. The background is that demand for AI servers is too hot, and the current production capacity is not enough, yet they are afraid to blindly expand production, because the new production line is simply too late, and no one can clearly say what is needed later. Once demand falls, it becomes a huge burden. Therefore, in order to maximize benefits, Murata takes the initiative to make adjustments, and the direction is to focus on high-capacity, high-reliability, and high-value-added MLCCs. Well, the optimized share is expected to be eaten up by domestic companies. Murata's withdrawal this time corresponds to the global market size of about several billion yuan. The agency expects Taiwan Giants + Huaxinke to take about 40-50%; Fenghua Hi-Tech (000636.SZ) will take the 15-25% range; and the remaining portion of other domestic manufacturers such as Sanhuan Group (06951), Weirong, and Yuyang (Tianli Holdings plans to change the name). It should be noted that the actual transfer of orders will mainly occur in 2028-2029. 2026-2027 will only gradually reduce supply, and there will be no sudden explosive order inflow. Therefore, what is speculation now is about expectations, and whether the rise can continue to rise in the future depends on whether MLCC increases in price. A-share Fenghua Hi-Tech went up and down today, while the Hong Kong stock Sanhuan Group mentioned yesterday rose more than 4%. Another Tianli Holding Group (00117): It is a pure MLCC concept. It specializes in small-sized MLCCs. The plates are small, and the elasticity has increased by more than 8%.
The Shenzhen Optical Expo brought new expectations to the optical fiber industry. Several major players in the industry focused on showing CPO/NPO related polarized optical fibers. The general feedback demand from the industry is clearly heating up, and some manufacturers have already begun to take orders and expand production. The logic is that compared to air core optical fiber, the commercialization path of polarized fiber is more clear, and it is expected to gradually enter the release stage from the end of 2026 to 2027; air core optical fiber: it has moved from the laboratory stage to engineering, but it is a medium- to long-term direction. Currently, the G.654.E order and revenue fulfillment path is more clear. Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) has the most comprehensive layout of new optical fibers such as air core, polarization protection, G.654.E, etc., and the technical premium is high, rising more than 3% today.
The FCC passed a ban on optical communications on July 22, which was officially published in the Federal Register today, and will officially take effect 30 days later. What is clearly restricted this time is logic hardware produced by a specific entity on the Covered List, which excludes pure mechanical and passive components, and does not blacklist major optical module and optical device companies such as “Yi Zhongtian”. Zhongji Xuchuang (03308): Recently, it has intensively repurchased A shares. On September 10, it spent about 597 million yuan to buy back about 6662 million A-shares. On September 9, it spent about 217 million yuan to buy back about 239,000 A-shares. Today's increase is over 4%.
[Section Focus]
The revenue of Taiwanese second-tier PCB manufacturers rebounded sharply in August. Ding Ying Investment's August revenue was +84% year-on-year, +16% month-on-month; Taidingyi KY was +36% year-on-year, +16% month-on-month, indicating that the PCB boom has been verified. Agencies generally believe that as the prices of electronic cloth, copper foil and CCL continue to rise, PCB manufacturers have initiated re-quotations one after another. Compared with upstream materials, there is a certain time lag in price increases in board manufacturers, and Q3 is expected to become a starting point for the joint improvement of product prices, capacity utilization, and order structures.
Main varieties: Chipboard Micropack (09630), Jiantao Laminated Board (01888), Shenghong Technology (02476), Guanghe Technology (01989).
[Individual Stock Mining]
Chipboard Micropack (09630): Accelerated PCB production expansion drives LDI demand to increase and accelerate shipments of advanced packaging equipment
The company's 2026 semi-annual report revenue was 1.06 billion yuan, +69.0% year over year; net profit to mother was 281 million yuan, +98.1% year over year; net profit after deducting non-net profit of 277 million yuan, +104% year over year; and operating cash flow of 292 million yuan, a sharp increase of 377% year over year. The gross margin was stable at 40% to 42% over a long period of time, and the net profit margin was stable at 20% +; cash flow improved dramatically, and the revenue and profit growth rate continued to be higher than the industry average.
Comment: The company's performance in the first half of the year was impressive, with high profit and cash flow growth. The rapid expansion of AI PCB production led to an increase in upstream LDI demand. The company is the only commercial direct writing lithography equipment manufacturer in the world covering the four major scenarios of PCBs, IC carriers, advanced packaging, and mask versions. In 2025, PCB direct writing equipment accounted for 18.8% of the global market, ranking first in the world, surpassing Japan's ORC and Israel's Orbotech (a subsidiary of KLA). The company benefited from large-scale expansion of AI server high-end PCBs (high multi-layer, mSAP process) production, traditional film exposure reached the limit of the process, LDI penetration rate continued to increase, high-end models continued to be released, and the PCB business gross margin was stable at 40% +. Second growth curve Pan-Semiconductor, the WLP2000 wafer-level direct writing lithography machine, has passed TSMC's CoWos-L process verification. It is a scarce large-scale advanced packaging lithography device in China. The value of a single unit is 15-20 million, and the gross profit margin is over 50%, which is higher than the PCB business. Entered the Shennan Circuit and Xing Sen Technology IC carrier board production line to replace domestic BT carrier boards and ABF carrier boards to speed up. Most domestic peers only make PCBs. Very few manufacturers have advanced packaging for mass production models. The racetrack competition pattern is very good, and the barriers are extremely high.
The company has the largest mass production capacity in China, with an annual production capacity of 1,500 units. The delivery speed is significantly superior to overseas manufacturers, and domestic alternatives continue to seize the share of Japanese, European and American manufacturers. Overseas orders were released, and the overseas shipping cycle began. Factory orders in Thailand and Vietnam grew rapidly, and the logic of going overseas was fulfilled. The company is full of on-hand orders, and the capacity utilization rate is high. The company's new orders in the 2026Q1 quarter exceeded 800 million yuan, a record high; the company disclosed that Q2 orders maintained high growth in the first quarter. PCB orders: Leading PCB manufacturers continue to expand production, and orders for high-end LDI equipment are full. Advanced packaging orders: More than 30 units of WLP2000 equipment are in hand, and the corresponding order amount exceeds 100 million yuan. Leading domestic packaging and testing factories continue to introduce them, and orders for IC carrier board equipment are steadily increasing. Strong demand for AI has led to increased supply constraints. As the leading domestic direct writing lithography equipment, Chipboard's products are widely used in the PCB and optical communication fields, and it is expected that it will continue to benefit from the upward trend in the industry. All of the H share overallotment rights have boosted confidence. The company's rapid expansion of AI PCB production has led to a high increase in performance. The WLP2000 wafer-level direct writing lithography equipment has received repeated batch orders, and shipments of advanced packaging equipment have been accelerated.