Cui Dongshu: Structural recovery in the car market in August, retail sales in the car market rebounded 5.5% month-on-month
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that retail sales in the auto market rebounded 5.5% month-on-month in August 2026, which was the result of a combination of factors such as high oil price suppression, weak macroeconomic conditions, heated policy expectations, and driven by the Chengdu Auto Show. Geographical conflicts continue to plague navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, driving international oil prices to remain high and volatile. The cumulative increase in domestic gasoline prices in 2026 has exceeded 1,720 yuan/ton. In particular, since the end of July, it has risen 180 yuan, which has greatly raised the cost of fuel vehicles, and domestic fuel passenger vehicle consumption demand continues to shrink sharply. The manufacturing PMI rebounded 0.6% to 49.8% month-on-month in August, and is still below the boom and bust line. Although the marginal domestic demand for terminals picked up, its strength was limited.
The high temperature holiday in early to mid-August curtailed the flow of terminal-to-store customers, the late Chengdu Auto Show led to a recovery in market popularity, and the monthly impulse drove the average daily retail repair. Terminal orders and passenger flow showed a trend of low and back. Furthermore, after the implementation of the new national standard for new energy safety, compliant products were intensively and iteratively listed, and the rise in the technical threshold drove the industry to shift from “price internal volume” to “value competition.” Combined with the July Politburo meeting, it was clear that fiscal strengthening, increasing domestic demand, and continuing implementation of policies to promote consumption will provide bottom support for the car market. Therefore, this round of market downturn is a phased structural fluctuation, and it is too early to judge that industry trends are deteriorating.
1. The automobile market is generally stable in 2026
In August 2026, the total sales volume of automobiles was 2.71 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. From January to August 2026, the total sales volume of automobiles was 2.09 million units, a cumulative decrease of 3%. In 2026, the truck and bus market was strong, and the passenger car market performance was slightly weak. Coupled with strong exports and weak domestic markets, the overall sales trend of manufacturers was relatively stable in the end.
In 2026, the performance of the Automobile Group was drastically divided, and companies such as BYD quickly recovered and rose to number one. SAIC is under tremendous pressure. Companies such as Geely and Chery have generally maintained a strong trend.
2. Export as a share of total sales
China's automobile exports have exploded in recent years, reaching 37% of the total export volume in August 2026, a significant increase from 20% in 2025, achieving an important component in supporting the growth of China's automobile scale.
3. The performance of major car groups is drastically divided
Compared with the 2021 chart above, some car companies performed strongly in 2022, and the growth rate of the industry was seriously divided. The epidemic in early 2022 put a lot of pressure on traditional car companies. In particular, the impact of new energy was compounded by the impact of the epidemic. The performance of large state-owned groups was divided, and GAC and Chery performed well. Among them, Chery's commercial vehicle and passenger car sectors performed well. The performance of various companies in the North, such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC, is under pressure.
In early 2023, new energy sources drove the trend of the car market to diverge. The top three central enterprises are generally divided, and some state-owned enterprises are left behind. New energy companies such as BYD have performed very well; Chery and Tesla have performed relatively well this year. The performance of second-tier car companies is divided. Due to the continuous loss pressure of new and old kinetic energy conversion and new energy vehicles, the differentiation of own-brand SMEs is seriously sluggish.
The Auto Group's lineup pattern changed completely in 2024, and the price reduction of new BYD products increased. Due to the high demand for passenger car sales and overseas contributions, Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performed well, and SAIC Motor is still in a sharp decline. The growth rates of new energy vehicles at BYD and Tesla are diverging.
The pattern of manufacturers in the automobile market has changed dramatically, and the industry is showing sharp divisions in growth. Private enterprises starting in 2025 replaced state-owned enterprises as the main players in the industry, and the growth rates of Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall remained at a high level.
Leading sales in 2026 is the focus of efforts of companies in various countries. Despite a severe downturn in the market, BYD returned to number one. SAIC Motor, Geely, Chery, BAIC, etc. performed well in January-August this year, and their growth rate improved. Great Wall, Tesla, etc. performed well overall.
In 2026, the pattern of automobile manufacturers was relatively stable, and their autonomous status increased dramatically. The overall sales volume of manufacturers was good in August, but sluggish retail sales in the market dragged down the performance of passenger car manufacturers. Some manufacturers, such as BYD, showed a strong month-on-month trend compared to July, while Chery and others strengthened year-on-year. Strong independent export companies have performed well, and groups with joint ventures are under great pressure.
4. Production and sales trends of passenger car companies in the narrow sense
In August 2026, the total sales volume of passenger cars in the narrow sense was 2.35 million units, down 5% year on year; from January to August 2026, the total sales volume of passenger cars in the narrow sense was 17.16 million units, down 5% year on year. In recent years, technological innovation in new energy vehicles and the competitiveness of new products have continued to grow, and the launch of new fuel vehicles has been weak. New energy vehicles at the beginning of 2026 are in an adjustment period. Dealers' confidence is insufficient, and high oil prices are holding down the growth rate.
In 2026, passenger car autonomous vehicle companies will take the overall lead. In August, the main car companies were generally weak, and their autonomy was strong. Joint venture car companies showed a weak trend in August due to high fuel prices. BYD led the way, Chery ranked 2nd, and Geely held the top 3 in August, and the scale of the top 3 is getting closer. Joint ventures such as FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen are underperforming fans.
The main passenger car manufacturers quickly split. The main export-oriented companies and manufacturers of new energy vehicles performed well. The performance differentiation of joint ventures was particularly obvious, and FAW-Volkswagen was stronger.
5. Production and sales trends of new energy passenger vehicle companies
In August 2026, NEV manufacturers sold a total of 1.51 million units, up 17% year on year; from January to August 2026, NEV manufacturers sold a total of 9.76 million units, up 9% year on year. At the beginning of 2026, scrapping and renewal subsidies were under high pressure, oil prices skyrocketed, consumption was sluggish, and demand for new energy vehicles was weak. The domestic trend of new energy in 2026 faced strong pressure from low demand.
In 2026, BYD remained number one, but mixed growth pressure was strong. New energy sources such as Chery and Zero Run are growing strongly.
6. Production and sales trends of traditional power passenger car companies
In 2025, sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of fuel were 14.22 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. From January to August 2026, 7.4 million units fell 18%. With high oil prices, the domestic fuel vehicle market trend will continue to be weak in 2026.
Due to export support, the overall performance of fuel vehicles was divided in 2026, and autonomous performance was strong, and the main joint venture car companies rapidly weakened in the short term.
7. Production and marketing classification trends of bus companies
Total bus sales for the full year of 2025 were 920,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 15%; total bus sales from January to August 2026 were 560,000 units, down 4% year on year, and the driving effect of exports and new energy logistics vehicles was average.
After sprinting at the end of 2025, the bus trend gradually strengthened in 2026. SAIC-GM-Wuling performed very well. Leading manufacturers such as SAIC Maxus have generally had strong sales in recent months. Market demand for logistics light buses and WeChat has fluctuated greatly, and exports have contributed greatly. Commercial vehicle trends for Jiangling Motors and SAIC Chase were good in 2026. Logistics vehicle companies such as Wuling, Changan, and JAC rebounded significantly in August.
8. Production and marketing classification trends of truck companies
In 2025, truck sales were 3.72 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11%; from January to August 2026, truck sales were 2.56 million units, an increase of 7% over the previous year, forming a trend of differentiation between consumption and production, a sharp decline in consumption and strong production growth.
Major truck manufacturers were clearly divided in 2026. Leading truck manufacturers performed well, and car companies such as JAC, Chase, and Sinotruk surged compared to August last year.
The effects of commercial vehicle subsidies are outstanding. Heavy trucks have surged in 2026, pure electric heavy trucks have performed very well, and Sinotruk, FAW, and Shaanxi Auto are growing strongly, and the industry pattern is relatively stable.