China Merchants Securities: Extending AI to Applications and Commercialization, Highlights the Value of Media Internet Configuration
Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that AI has gradually expanded from model capability and capital investment to application and commercialization, and there has been initial verification of revenue growth and efficiency improvements in marketing, short dramas, video tools, etc.; the game sector's performance is outstanding, with overseas, mobile game recovery and new product cycles jointly driving growth, and leading companies also have strong cash flow and dividend sharing capabilities; the overall pressure on the film and television industry was under pressure in the first half of the year, but the improved supply of high-quality content in the summer program led to marginal box office restoration; demand in the publishing sector is still weak and low The value of valuations and allocation of high-dividend varieties is still prominent .
The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:
AI investment continues to increase, and application-side commercialization is beginning to be realized at an accelerated pace
The main Internet business of the Hong Kong stock market remained stable as a whole. Tencent's Q2 capital expenditure reached 52.8 billion yuan, an increase of 64% over the previous month. AI investment was gradually reflected in model capabilities, AI applications, cloud services, and improvements in advertising and gaming efficiency. At the same time, AI is moving from “capacity building” to actual business processes. The marketing field has covered core processes such as material generation, advertising, and operation optimization. EasyDianworld AI covers about 50% of core execution tasks, increasing the efficiency of individual operators by more than 40%; short dramas and AI comics have also begun to make clear revenue contributions.
The game boom continues, and it has both growth and bonus attributes
2026H1 domestic game market revenue was 18.45 billion yuan, up 12.17% year on year. Overseas revenue from self-developed games increased by 30.22% year on year, and overseas sales continued to be an important source of growth for the industry. Among key A-share game companies, Century Huatong, Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Gigbit profits all grew by more than 50%. At the same time, Giant Network and Gigabit dividend rates were close to or above 70%. Currently, leading valuations are generally in the 10-13 times range. Fundamental growth, improved cash flow, and undervaluation all strengthen sector allocation value.
The fundamentals of film and television publishing are under pressure in the short term, and AI is empowering growth
The overall domestic box office was under pressure in the first half of the year, and high-quality summer films led to a recovery in the market. As of August 31, 2026, the national movie box office was 28.2 billion yuan, and the number of movie viewers was 717 million, down 28% and 21% from the previous year. The AI skit market is expanding rapidly. According to estimates by the DataEye Research Institute, the overall domestic short drama market size is expected to exceed 121 billion yuan in 2026, of which the AI skit and comic segment is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan. The total revenue of the 2026H1 Shenwan Publishing Division was 57.174 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to mother was 6.861 billion yuan. The overall law decreased by 10.82% and 18.43%, respectively, over the same period last year. The decline in profit is greater than the decline in revenue, and the overall operation of the industry is still under slight pressure.
The advertising and content boom is picking up marginally, and AI is bringing new growth scenarios
2026H1 total media advertising spending increased 8.5% year on year, the internet advertising market increased 7.1% year on year, and advertisers' marketing budget intentions have rebounded; more importantly, AI is further entering consumer insight, marketing optimization, and agent execution with content generation tools, and spawning new scenarios such as GEO and AI search marketing. In terms of film and television, the market was still under pressure in the first half of the year, but the summer program grossed 12.498 billion yuan, an increase of 4.45% over the previous year. The supply of high-quality content drove marginal improvements in the industry, and leading companies are expected to take the lead in repairing it.
Big model competition shifts from parameter expansion to “capability x efficiency”, focusing on continuous benefits for the application layer
The domestic model's million token context gradually became popular, and coding, agent, and native multi-modality became the main iterative direction. At the same time, API prices continued to decline and a hierarchical pricing system was formed. The reduction in model usage costs is conducive to downstream applications to further expand the call volume and commercialization scale. The publishing sector, on the other hand, continues to show the characteristics of weak recovery in demand, focusing on the steady basic market of textbooks and teaching aids, the gradual implementation of AI education products, and undervalued and high-dividend varieties.
Risk warning: AI technology development and commercialization fall short of expectations, industry regulation and content compliance risks, increased industry competition, macroeconomic and consumer demand fluctuations in advertising and entertainment.