Deloitte raised retail sales forecast for 2026 in Hong Kong to HK$412 billion, up 8.4% year over year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Hong Kong retail market performed stronger than expected in the first half of 2026, with sales of about HK$2030 billion, up 9.7% year on year. Benefiting from strong growth momentum in the first half of the year, Deloitte China raised its retail sales forecast for the full year 2026 to HK$412 billion, an increase of 8.4% year over year, and is expected to increase by 7% in the second half of the year.

Zheng Huanran, Deloitte's partner in charge of the consumer market business in Hong Kong, China, said that looking forward, improvements in the Hong Kong property market are expected to continue to increase the spending power of local high-net-worth individuals. Coupled with the intensive hosting of large-scale events and festivals, it is expected to attract more international visitors to Hong Kong and further stimulate consumption.

Deloitte China expects major retail categories to record growth throughout the year, with jewellery, watches and luxury gifts expected to reach HK$60 billion (up 15.4%); clothing and footwear to reach HK$50 billion (up 16.3%); pharmaceuticals and cosmetics to reach HK$40 billion (up 11.1%); and durable consumer goods to reach HK$68 billion (up 15.3%). The high-value consumer goods category is most likely to benefit from tourism recovery and wealth effects, while cross-border consumption by mainland visitors supports the growth of pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and durable consumer goods.

According to Deloitte, visitors to Hong Kong are expected to increase by 18% throughout the year, to 59 million, of which 46 million are from mainland China. Zheng Huanran believes that in order to turn growth in the first half of the year into a continuous driving force, retailers should focus on three strategic priorities, including popularizing luxury goods, increasing customer value, and optimizing cross-border pricing.

Hu Jiaming, partner in charge of strategic customer service at Deloitte China, said that China is expected to continue to maintain its leading position in the global luxury market in 2026. 19.3% of executives surveyed expect China to become the main driving force for luxury consumption, highlighting its structural growth momentum as consumers become more mature.