BHP shares keep falling. Is now the time to buy?

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares kicked off the new week the way they've kicked off quite a few recent sessions: in the red.

The ASX mining stock slipped another 0.5% on Monday to $60.59, extending a pullback that's now stripped more than 13% off the all-time high of $68.77 set back on 26 August.

13% down in a few weeks is the kind of move that gets value hunters circling. But before anyone gets too excited about a 'discount', it's worth asking whether BHP was ever actually cheap to begin with — and whether this dip is an opportunity or just gravity reasserting itself.

Keep the run in perspective

Even after the recent slide, BHP is still up roughly 33% so far in 2026, and a blistering 49% over the past 12 months. A 13% pullback off the top looks dramatic in isolation, but stack it against those gains, and it starts to look less like a crash and more like a breather after a sprint.

And the business hasn't been standing still. FY26 revenue climbed 15% to US$58.8 billion, while underlying EBITDA jumped 27% to US$32.9 billion. Net debt shrank to a lean US$8.7 billion. The full-year dividend rose to 172 US cents per share.

This isn't a company limping into a correction. It's one that's arguably earned its re-rating.

The copper story is the real headline

Buried in those numbers is arguably the most important structural shift at BHP in years. Copper, not iron ore, is now the earnings engine. Copper delivered US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA – up 48% – and made up 54% of group earnings. That's the first time copper out-earned iron ore across a full year.

Production held around 2 million tonnes for a second straight year, and management is chasing roughly 40% growth by FY35 via projects spanning Australia, Chile and Argentina.

If the world's electrification and grid-buildout thesis plays out anywhere near as expected, that positioning matters.

So, is BHP actually cheap?

Not really, and that's the uncomfortable part. BHP shares have essentially run up to meet the market's own expectations. TradingView consensus puts the average 12-month price target at $61.02 across 21 analysts.

That's basically where BHP shares sit today. Ratings are split: five strong buys, 13 holds and three sell/strong sells.

There's also a wide range of views. Morgan Stanley has a $68 target, while Freedom Capital Markets is at $66. Jefferies and Bank of America are both sitting at $65.

At the other end, Bernstein has a $44 target.

Foolish takeaway

This isn't a screaming bargain sitting there for the taking. Valuations are full, and brokers are largely clustered around the current price. But a fortress balance sheet, growing copper exposure, and a dividend that keeps climbing are hard to ignore.

History suggests that owning world-class assets at a fair price beats trying to nail the final 10% of a rally — or the first 10% of a dip.

For patient, long-term holders, BHP shares still look more like a stock to hold through the noise than one to bail on because of a bad fortnight.

The post BHP shares keep falling. Is now the time to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Motley Fool's purpose is to help the world invest, better. Click here now for your free subscription to Take Stock, The Motley Fool's free investing newsletter. Packed with stock ideas and investing advice, it is essential reading for anyone looking to build and grow their wealth in the years ahead. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson. 2026