UniCredit Initiated at Sector Perform as RBC Notes Reduced Earnings Visibility Amid Commerzbank Consolidation

07:57 AM EDT, 09/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets began its coverage of UniCredit (UCG.MI) with a sector perform rating, noting that the Italian banking group's earnings visibility is clouded by the full consolidation of German peer Commerzbank (CBK.F), in which it currently holds a 47.6% stake. "In our view, UCG's c.1x P/E discount to the [Euro Stoxx Banks Index] is justified given plausible risks to its short-term capital trajectory and lower earnings visibility as it consolidates CBK. Limited scope for material upward EPS revisions and value creation converging towards the European banking average hinder the re-rating of the shares in the near future," the research firm said Tuesday. "UCG expects the CBK consolidation to lift FY28 net profit and EPS by c.11% and c.5%, respectively, with revenue and cost initiatives targeting a c.EUR1.2bn boost to CBK's PBT by FY30. We believe in UCG's ability to deliver guided cost synergies, but prevailing revenue attrition uncertainty impacts our earnings visibility at this stage." Analysts also view UniCredit's continued wind-down of its small-but-highly-profitable subsidiary in Russia as a headwind to its medium-term earnings, expecting a 5% dilution to the group's EPS by 2028. The stock's price target was set at 90 euros.