Bank of America raised its forecast significantly: the size of the US semiconductor market will nearly double to $3.2 trillion in 2030, AI and storage will drive the next stage of growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bank of America said that with stronger demand for memory chips and server investment reshaping the industry's capital expenditure cycle, the bank raised its growth forecast for the US semiconductor industry. Bank of America expects the industry's total potential market size (TAM) to reach $3.2 trillion by 2030, higher than the previous forecast of $2.7 trillion. The bank said that, driven by continued strong customer orders and increasing production capacity commitments in the data center and artificial intelligence sector, the size of the US semiconductor industry may nearly double from the current forecast of 1.7 trillion US dollars within the next four years. This forecast means that the industry's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will reach 18% between 2026 and 2030, which is higher than Bank of America's previous forecast of 14%. Among them, memory chips and data center components are expected to drive most of the growth.

At the same time, Bank of America also raised its outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry. The forecast for the scale of wafer manufacturing equipment (WFE) related spending in 2026 was raised from US$144 billion to US$156 billion; the forecast for 2027 was raised from US$190 billion to US$210 billion. The bank also estimates that by 2030, the scale of related expenses could reach 360 billion US dollars. Bank of America said that the prospects for the dynamic random access memory (DRAM) sector are particularly strong. DRAM equipment spending is expected to reach 61 billion US dollars this year and 85 billion US dollars in 2027.

In addition to the optimism shown by Bank of America, independent industry forecasts also point in the same direction. SEMI expects WFE sales to grow by 23.1% in 2026 to reach US$143.9 billion, due to increased investment in advanced memory chips, particularly DRAM related to high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and increased investment in advanced process logic chips.

Recent memory chip market data also supports stronger spending prospects. According to TrendForce, the global DRAM industry's revenue in the second quarter surged 59.5% month-on-month to nearly US$154.73 billion. As demand for AI servers drives shipments of high-bandwidth and high-capacity storage products, and supply expansion lags behind demand, the market is showing strong growth. TrendForce also predicts that by 2027, DRAM and NAND Flash together may account for 68% of the capital expenditure of major cloud service providers, up from 47% in 2026.