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    Is Archer Aviation (ACHR) Undervalued Following Its Midnight City To City Flight Tour?

    Simply Wall St·09/15/2026 22:28:18
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    Archer Aviation (ACHR) just put its Midnight air taxi through a real city pair test, completing a roundtrip between Salinas and Hollister in around 12 minutes each way.

    These city pair flights come at a time when Archer Aviation’s share price has been under pressure, with the stock closing at US$5.47 and logging a 30 day share price return that is down 17.37%. The 90 day move is up 2.05%, while the 1 year total shareholder return has fallen 39.96%, suggesting recent momentum is trying to turn after a tough stretch.

    Spot opportunities across urban air mobility and related sectors by reviewing our hand-picked 16 high quality undiscovered gems. These companies, like Archer Aviation, are working on new ways to move people and infrastructure.

    For Archer Aviation, a 40 mile proof flight sits next to a share price that is still down sharply over the year. Is most of the rerating already in the rear view mirror, or is the bigger upside still in front of it as the valuation work begins?

    Most Popular Narrative: 73% Undervalued

    The most followed Archer Aviation thesis pegs fair value at $20.04, which sits well above the recent $5.47 close and frames the current share price as a deep discount rather than a small mispricing.

    Archer Aviation is positioned to be the first to scale in the trillion-dollar Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market. Unlike competitors struggling with "production hell," Archer has solved the manufacturing equation through its strategic partnership with Stellantis, which is funding and building Archer's high-volume factory in Georgia. With a robust order book (United Airlines) and a clear path to FAA certification for its "Midnight" aircraft in 2025/2026, the current valuation reflects "bankruptcy risk" rather than "commercial launch" potential.

    See why 38 investors see Archer Aviation as 73% undervalued.

    According to Talos, the author of the most popular Archer Aviation thesis, the valuation gap of roughly 73% between the $20.04 fair value view and the $5.47 market price hinges on how investors weigh certification risk against the potential size of the Urban Air Mobility market and related opportunities in defense and software. That narrative also leans on a 10% discount rate, which affects how heavily future cash flows are marked down when brought back to today.

    On one hand, Archer Aviation is still loss making, with a reported net loss of $799.7m and a negative Return on Equity of 41.75%. On the other hand, the business generated $6.9m of revenue and is associated with very high forecast top line growth in the shared narrative, alongside a discounted cash flow value estimate of $16.10 from the SWS DCF model that also sits well above the latest share price.

    For readers weighing that spread between narrative fair value, the SWS DCF output, and the current market cap of about $4.24b, the key question is how much of the certification, execution, and funding risk is already reflected in a stock that has seen its 1 year total shareholder return fall 39.96% while long term supporters still argue the equity is materially undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $20.04 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, Archer Aviation’s story can break if FAA timelines slip materially, or if future funding needs dilute existing holders more than the current thesis assumes.

    Find out about the key risks to this Archer Aviation narrative.

    Next Steps

    Worried the bullish and cautious signals around Archer Aviation are pulling in different directions? Act quickly, review the underlying data, and weigh the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

    Looking for more Archer Aviation style ideas?

    Do not stop your research at Archer Aviation. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to spot other potential winners and avoid feeling late to the next move.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.