CITIC Securities: The PCB/CCL industry accelerates the release of AI, traditional CCL price increases, and the performance momentum is strong
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that it is optimistic about the sustainability of the PCB/CCL boom cycle, benefiting from iterative volume in the AI field and price increases in traditional fields, and 26H2's performance is expected to be strong; in the medium to long term, it is expected to benefit from continuous iterative upgrading of PCB processes and materials, and segments such as ASIC, carrier boards, mSAP, and PTFE are all expected to achieve excessive growth. Among them, it is recommended to focus on the following main investment lines: 1) AI PCB/CCL leading companies: strong short-term performance and increased visibility; 2) companies that previously had a high share of traditional PCBs and high performance pressure, and 26H2 is expected to usher in a clear reversal in performance, and AI PCB performance growth expectations are expected to be further strengthened; 3) Benefiting from CCL's continued price increases, performance releases are expected to exceed expectations.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
AI PCB demand/production capacity release+reversal of traditional PCB performance, strong short-term performance momentum
In the AI PCB field, Rubin/Trainium 3 has begun large-scale pick-up since 26H2 (according to each company's performance exchange meeting, Taiguang 2026H2 AI CCL shipments are expected to increase by about 40%, and Zhibang's Q3 revenue is expected to increase by 32% month-on-month). TPU v8 shipping is expected to start in Q4. At the same time, PCB side yield is progressing steadily, and new production capacity is expected to increase at an accelerated pace since 26H2. In the traditional PCB field, manufacturers with the ability to pick up materials are expected to increase by 20% in June-August. The pace of price increases has increased significantly, and the bank determines that the profitability of relevant PCB manufacturers is expected to improve significantly from 26Q3. In summary, the bank is optimistic about the performance growth momentum of leading 26Q3/4 PCB companies.
Supply and demand continue to be tight in the medium to long term, and PCB performance increases, visibility increases
Demand continues to improve, and Nvidia's Rubin ultra PCB solution is gradually becoming clear. The bank estimates that ASP is expected to continue to increase by 50% + compared to Rubin, and the penetration rate of the M9/ultra-high multilayer design will further increase. At the same time, the PTFE+ thermosetting material mixing scheme is progressing smoothly and is expected to be the first to land in Switch Tray. Subsequent orthogonal backplane upgrades and imports also have opportunities to exceed expectations; TrendForce and other agencies continue to improve the 2026 shipment forecast for Google TPU, AWS, etc., and the V9/T4 PCB upgrade will continue. Domestic computing power is also entering a period of acceleration; the supply side is still tight. The bank determines that delivery times for current core rigs, exposure machines, electroplating, etc. continue to be extended, and new orders for Prismark core equipment have been scheduled until 2 years later, so the bottlenecks for short-term production expansion are clear. The bank believes that strong supply and production capacity constraints in the medium term will continue, and the high visibility of PCBs will continue to increase.
The trend of traditional CCL price increases continues, and AI CCL accelerates volume
In the traditional CCL sector, the bank sees that the current upstream materials are still tight and out of stock. The latest price increase for traditional CCL in August began to be implemented in September. Currently, PCB smooth prices are smooth, and CCL manufacturers are strongly demanding price increases. The bank determines that the subsequent trend of traditional CCL price increases is expected to continue under continued tight supply and demand, and profits from related manufacturers are expected to be released at an accelerated pace from 26Q3.
In the AI CCL field, the current overseas computing power boom is still high. At the same time, core materials at the CCL level are out of stock. At the same time, production capacity supply from leading overseas CCL manufacturers is tight, and domestic CCL demand is expected to grow strongly from 2026, and domestic AI CCL leading manufacturers are expected to benefit deeply. The current pace of domestic AI CCL shipments continues to exceed expectations, and the bank is optimistic that the domestic manufacturer AI CCL will accelerate the release of profits in the future.
The trend of carrier board conversion is accelerating, and the carrier board and mSAP boom cycle is further lengthening
In the carrier board sector, there is a clear trend of global supply shortages and price increases. Production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have all been ordered through long-term cooperation. The equipment expansion cycle is long, and delivery of core equipment has been significantly extended, so the scarcity of domestic carrier board production capacity continues to rise. Domestic BT carrier boards are expected to release profits at an accelerated pace with the release of production capacity, while ABF carrier board yield and production capacity are ready to go. The 26H1 has completed the introduction of many core customers and products, and the 26H2 is expected to usher in full launch.
In the field of carrier boards, the shortage of high-end optical modules/mSAP PCBs continues. Demand for mSAP PCBs is expected to surge in 2027, driven by double increases in volume and price, and there is still room for growth. By sorting through the actual production expansion progress and equipment delivery revealed in various company announcements or performance exchanges, the bank determines that the mSAP industry will remain tight in supply and demand in 2027, and the performance of related companies is expected to be released at a high slope.
risk factors
Macroeconomic fluctuations and geopolitical risks, the risk of increased competition in the PCB industry, the risk of raw material price fluctuations, the volume of new products from overseas computing power falling short of expectations, AI market demand growth falling short of expectations, the risk of technological change and product iteration, policy supervision and data privacy risks, high customer concentration risks, and CCL/PCB price increases falling short of expectations.