Oriental Securities: Optimistic about the “15th Five-Year Plan” distribution network construction due to the collaborative transformation of the power grid structure to the main distribution microgrid

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, China's electricity demand will continue to grow at an average annual rate of about 5%. In the face of system morphology changes brought about by a high proportion of new energy sources being connected to the grid, the construction of new power grids needs to be promoted in a systematic and integrated manner around new architectures, new technologies, and new services. The National Energy Administration has made it clear that the share of new energy in power supply side development continues to rise and provides target guidance. The large-scale grid connection of new energy sources will drive UHV construction and the construction of new power grids, and drive the release of primary and secondary equipment.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

incident

According to “China Energy News”, the National Energy Administration held a new grid construction work deployment meeting. During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, China's electricity demand will continue to grow at an average annual rate of about 5%, and the share of new energy sources will further increase. Demand for green, high-quality electricity in high-end industries will grow steadily, new models and new business formats will accelerate, and competition for core technology will intensify, putting higher demands on new grid construction.

Facing changes in system morphology brought about by a high proportion of new energy sources being connected to the grid, the construction of new power grids needs to be promoted in a systematic and integrated manner around new architectures, new technologies, and new services

The bank summarized that this work deployment meeting will mainly focus on four points to build a new power grid. The first is to establish a solid grid base and create a new architecture for main and micro collaboration. Adapt a high proportion of new energy sources to the grid, promote the shift of power grids from unidirectional transmission to two-way interaction of source grid load storage, calm wind and light fluctuations, and support distributed energy access. The second is to strengthen technological innovation and implement new technologies such as AI, flexible networking, intelligent control, and long-term energy storage. The system shifts from “source to load” to “source and load interaction” to solve the problems of weak inertia and output fluctuations of new energy sources and cultivate new productivity in the power field. The third is to expand grid services and develop new grid services adapted to new business formats. Facing new types of loads such as computing power and electrified transportation, we promote the transformation of power grids to “energy+computing power” integrated carriers, implement electricity calculation collaboration, and source grid load storage integration. Fourth, maintain the safety bottom line and build a highly resilient power grid. Respond to changes in fault characteristics and extreme weather shocks brought about by power electronics, ensure the stable operation of large power grids, and balance energy transformation and system safety.

The penetration rate of new energy sources continues to increase, and power grid construction will shift to a collaborative shift to the main distribution microgrid

The new power grid industry chain has a strong upstream and downstream driving effect, and has the dual value of stable investment in the short term and optimization of the energy structure in the long term. In terms of the penetration rate of new energy sources, the share of new energy installed/power generation increased rapidly in the 14th Five-Year Plan; it is estimated that in 2030, scenery will account for more than 50% of installed capacity, and a high proportion of new energy sources will become the new normal for power systems. On the power supply side, wind fluctuations drive up trend uncertainty; the proportion of thermal power synchronous units has declined, and the system shows characteristics of low inertia, low damping, and weak support. The risk of system stability has increased, spawning demand for power electronics and stable control equipment. On the grid side, AC/DC, high and low voltage grids are deeply coupled; the power grid has changed from “main grid dominance and distribution network assistance” to “main distribution with micro multi-layer collaboration”. Power flows in both directions, and the complexity of scheduling and operation has increased significantly. On the load side, the load has changed from simple electricity consumption to production and consumption; distributed photovoltaics have dropped in large numbers to medium- and low-voltage distribution networks, distribution networks have changed from passive to active networks, the interaction between source network load storage has increased, and the demand for distribution network safety control and intelligent transformation has increased.

The bank believes that the domestic new energy penetration rate is gradually increasing, bringing uncertainty and volatility to existing power grids. The National Energy Administration has made it clear that grid construction will shift from “main grid domination and distribution grid assistance” to main distribution microgrid collaboration, and is optimistic that the approval and construction of major grid projects such as domestic transmission channels and new grid construction will drive demand for grid primary and secondary equipment.

Risk Alerts

Investment in power grid distribution networks falls short of expectations, etc.