Senate vetoes clarity bill, industry turns to SEC and CFTC to fill regulatory vacuum

According to Woofun AI, the US Senate failed to push for the Clarity Act in a key vote, leading cryptocurrency industry leaders to shift regulatory expectations to US financial regulators in an attempt to fill the resulting institutional gap.

The vote to close the debate process on Tuesday ended with 49 votes to 50, falling short of the required 60-vote threshold, a setback that prompted industry executives to re-evaluate the regulatory path. Despite the disappointing results, the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission are currently seen as the institutions most likely to provide clear standards. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said on the X platform that, driven by the US Securities and Exchange Commission led by Chairman Paul Atkins and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission led by Chairman Seliger, the industry still has reason to be optimistic and promises to actively participate in rulemaking.

Notably, at the Solana Policy Research Institute summit on Monday, Paul Atkins once again reiterated that whether legislation is passed or not, regulators will come out with more explicit cryptocurrency rules. However, this plan, which relies on administrative guidelines, has raised concerns about temporary mitigation measures, and companies may have to face the legal risks of case-by-case judgment for a long time.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, there are significant differences within the industry over the future of legislation. Abhishek Waidyanatan, chief legal officer of NEAR, pointed out that if the bill is vetoed, relevant companies will fully rely on the performance guidance and administrative discretion of regulators, those that are in the process of formulating the 2027 budget will face further delays, and counterparties will also have to bear the impact of regulatory uncertainty. Alvin Cann, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet, said the failure to pass the bill on Tuesday meant that questions about how securities, commodities and currency transfer rules apply to different products remain.

As Senator Tom Tillis proposed to reconsider the failed attempt, the Clarity Act may once again face a vote to end the debate process. Opinions differ on whether the US Congress can pass legislation before the end of the January term. 1inch Chief Legal Officer Orest Gavrilyak believes that today's results only postpone the process, and the vote to end the debate may be held again. Waidian Nathan, on the other hand, is pessimistic and believes that the next US Congress is the best opportunity to resolve market structure issues. He mentioned that the House of Representatives has cancelled the September 21 and 28 meetings, and that the Senate state affairs period will begin on October 5 before the November 3 general election.

Polymarket predicts that the probability of passing the Clarity Act in 2026 falls to 5% on Tuesday, the lowest since the market opened in January. This data reflects the market's extremely pessimistic expectations of the legislative process. The industry may need to adapt to an uncertain environment dominated by regulators for a long time until the next National Assembly brings about structural changes.