Jibang Consulting: Global data center electricity demand is expected to increase by 31% per year in 2026, and the grid supply gap will expand from 2028

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to TrendForce's latest AI Server industry research, in order to meet the rapidly increasing demand for AI applications, cloud service providers (CSPs) are speeding up the deployment of relevant infrastructure. TrendForce estimates that in 2026, the global data center power demand capacity will reach 161 GW, an annual increase of about 31%. The main source of growth is AI Server, which is estimated to account for 33.4% of the total demand capacity. TrendForce Jibang Consulting divides data center power demand capacity into four major sources. In addition to general servers (general servers), AI servers, and other IT equipment, there are also non-IT equipment such as heat dissipation and power supply systems.

Looking at recent changes in global data center power demand capacity, it has reached 122.9 GW in 2025, and is estimated to rise to 161 GW in 2026. It is estimated that in 2027, when CSP continues to expand capital expenditure and overall server shipments do not decrease, data center power demand capacity will maintain a growth rate of more than 30%.

TrendForce Jibang Consulting said that although improvements in the mechanical and electrical efficiency of data centers have reduced the load driven by each unit of IT electricity consumption, with the rapid deployment of IT equipment, starting with AI servers, and the simultaneous growth in the total demand capacity of non-IT equipment, data centers have begun planning to use high voltage DC power supply (HVDC) to optimize the overall power supply and distribution link efficiency.

From the perspective of the overall power demand capacity of data centers, the share of AI servers has grown from nearly 25% in 2025 to around 33.4% in 2026, and it is estimated that it may exceed 40% in 2027. In comparison, the share of general-purpose servers dropped from about 40% in the past to 25.6% in 2027.

Data center power supply and demand capacity gap is estimated to reach 268 GW in 2030

While demand for electricity in data centers continues to grow, the grid's power supply growth rate has yet to keep up. According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting estimates, before 2025, the power grid deliverability (Grid Deliverability) could still meet the growth of the power demand capacity of data centers, but from 2026, supply and demand will diverge significantly after 2028; by 2030, it is estimated that the power demand capacity of global data centers will reach 490.7 GW. Under the premise that other electricity needs are met, the power grid capacity that can be used by data centers is 222.6 GW, and the supply and demand gap will reach 268 GW.

According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's analysis, this gap between supply and demand needs to be understood at two levels. First, in addition to being supplied by the power grid, the power demand of the data center may also be satisfied through the manufacturer's self-built power generation after the meter, but this part does not include the capacity of the power grid that can be used by the data center. Therefore, the above estimation method cannot reflect its role in filling the gap, causing the book gap to be higher than the actual shortage. Second, delays in the delivery of grid-connected power grids and transmission and distribution construction will cause a real shortage of electricity supply.

Looking at the US, which currently has the highest number of data centers deployed, it is estimated that until 2028, since a significant portion of the electricity used by the manufacturer will be self-built and supplied by the manufacturer, almost all projects scheduled by the national grid will be electrified on time. However, starting in 2028, the delay in power grid delivery will become more obvious, becoming the main cause of the widening gap in data center power supply and demand capacity. Based on current grid data, it is estimated that the gap in power supply and demand capacity of US data centers will exceed 170 GW by 2030. It remains to be seen whether this gap can be reduced in the future through self-built power supply and improvements in the grid power supply situation after the meter.