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    Is Simon Property Group (SPG) Still Undervalued After New Debt And Mall News?

    Simply Wall St·09/16/2026 12:25:30
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    Simon Property Group has more than doubled investors' money over the past three years, even as the stock has recently given back some ground. With fresh headlines around individual malls and new debt issuance, the central question is whether the cash the company can generate over time still lines up with where the shares trade today.

    • Over the past three years, Simon Property Group has returned about 106.9%, which puts real pressure on the idea that its current cash flows can fully support the latest share price level.
    • Management's move to sell US$800 million of new senior notes and potentially hand back a struggling Boston area mall reshapes both its leverage profile and the mix of properties that need to underpin future cash generation.
    • Prefer to judge Simon Property Group on earnings? See what Simon Property Group's 14.3x P/E says about the price.

    The issue now is whether Simon Property Group's current share price is properly grounded in the cash flows implied by a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) view of the business.

    If you want more ideas built around cash flow support for valuation, consider a focused stock screen of 34 high quality undervalued stocks.

    Is Simon Property Group a Bargain on Cash Flow?

    The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) work here focuses on how much hard cash Simon Property Group can produce for shareholders over time. On the latest twelve month view, the trust generated about $4.0b of free cash flow, measured using adjusted funds from operations. This is a hefty base for a real estate owner. The projections then assume growing free cash flow rather than a shrinking stream. This fits a profile of a large portfolio that is expected to grind out higher cash generation in dollar terms rather than swing wildly year to year.

    Those cash flow estimates imply an intrinsic value that the model suggests is substantially above the current share price of $204.10. The expected hand back of the weaker Square One Mall in Saugus helps square that picture, because it tilts Simon Property Group a little further toward assets that the cash flow model already treats as the long term earners. Find out what Simon Property Group could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

    The Simon Property Group Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

    Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the Simon Property Group valuation puzzle leaves off by spelling out which combinations of future growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to look meaningfully under or overvalued compared with the current price. Each narrative treats Simon Property Group's fair value as a thesis you can track over time, so you can see how the underlying case holds up as new information arrives.

    One of the top community narratives on Simon Property Group: 13% undervalued

    "Strong leasing demand, premium occupancy, and redevelopments into mixed-use destinations support revenue growth, margin expansion, and long-term earnings power."

    Discover why this Narrative puts Simon Property Group at 13% undervalued.

    The Simon Property Group story is bigger than the share price

    Valuation work only tells part of the Simon Property Group story, because Simply Wall St's broader checks have flagged specific concerns that deserve your attention before you lean too hard on the pricing alone. Take a closer look at 4 warning signs (2 major) before settling on a valuation.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.