3 U.S. Bank Stocks Investors Are Watching Before The Next Fed Rate Decision

With the Federal Reserve preparing its next interest rate call, investors are watching U.S. bank stocks closely, since even a small move in the federal funds rate can reshape how lenders earn money on loans and deposits. That shift can create openings for some and pressure for others. This article walks through 3 U.S. bank stocks from our interest rate beneficiaries screener that appear positioned as potential participants in this Fed story.

The three banks highlighted below are just a first pass. The full screen surfaced 38 more U.S. lenders and diversified financial firms with equally compelling interest rate narratives that are not covered here. To go deeper, head straight into the U.S. Bank Stocks (Interest-Rate Beneficiaries) screener to identify, filter and analyze your own highest conviction ideas.

First Internet Bancorp (INBK)

Overview: First Internet Bancorp is a digital-first U.S. bank holding company focused on commercial, small business, consumer, and municipal lending that is closely tied to Federal Reserve rate moves.

Operations: The bank generates its US$55 million in revenue from commercial banking activities entirely within the United States, closely linking earnings to domestic rate policy.

Market Cap: US$250 million

First Internet Bancorp sits in the Fed-sensitive part of this screener. It has a loan-centric model where even modest rate tweaks can meaningfully influence how much it earns on every dollar it lends and gathers in deposits.

"Rapid loan origination growth and sustained low-cost fintech deposits position the company for margin expansion and outperformance versus peer expectations."

What happens to those projected margins if a single pressure point in its funding mix or credit costs moves in an unfavorable direction?

If that funding pressure point matters to your thesis, read the full narrative for First Internet Bancorp to see how First Internet Bancorp’s risk mix and rate leverage interact.

Kaspi.kz (KSPI)

Overview: Kaspi.kz runs a super app that blends digital payments, shopping, and fintech lending for consumers and merchants across Kazakhstan and nearby markets.

Operations: Kaspi.kz generates about KZT 2,151 billion from Marketplace, KZT 1,714 billion from Fintech, and KZT 677 billion from Payments, with most activity tied to Kazakhstan and Turkey.

Market Cap: US$19.1 billion

Kaspi.kz is not a classic U.S. deposit bank. Its fintech lending and funding model still brushes against the same interest rate questions investors are asking of more traditional financial stocks in this screener.

"Continued expansion and high engagement in payments, marketplace, and fintech super-app ecosystem are fueling cross-selling and deeper user integration, supporting higher long-term take rates and sustained revenue expansion."

What happens to Kaspi.kz’s margins, funding costs, and credit appetite if a single key assumption about future rate trends or consumer behavior shifts?

That single shift could be the spark that turns Kaspi.kz’s current trajectory into something much bigger, which is exactly what the full narrative for Kaspi.kz unpacks with its rate and fintech angles.

First Hawaiian (FHB)

Overview: First Hawaiian is a regional bank holding company that earns most of its money from traditional consumer and commercial lending and deposits that are closely linked to U.S. interest rate policy.

Operations: First Hawaiian generates about $633 million from Retail Banking and $249 million from Commercial Banking, with a small Corporate and Other segment impact.

Market Cap: $3.1b

First Hawaiian sits in the Fed-sensitive part of this screen, with a balance sheet where small moves in short term rates can meaningfully sway what it earns on core loans and deposits.

"The ongoing expansion in Hawaii's population and consistently rising tourism spending are supporting stable to growing demand for loans and banking services, which should lead to gradually increasing loan balances and higher fee-based revenue over time."

What happens for First Hawaiian’s earnings power if a single pressure point in deposit pricing or credit costs shifts against those rate tailwinds?

When that pressure point moves, the full narrative for First Hawaiian shows how First Hawaiian’s earnings engine could accelerate or stall as rates, deposits, and tourism flows gradually decouple.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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