Wanlian Securities: Financing needs to be improved, and the banking sector still has allocation value
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that demand for financing was still weak in August, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance stocks continued to slow, and government bond financing progress was still slow. The subsequent pace of fiscal strength is a key factor affecting economic fundamentals and monetary policy. The banking sector's 2026 interim report was in line with expectations as a whole, but internal segmentation further intensified. The revenue side remains resilient, driven by improved net interest spreads and integrated management; risk classification policies have further tightened the upward trend of superimposed provision plans, making profit improvement less flexible than revenue. Taking into account the current dividend rate and valuation level of bank stocks, the bank believes that the sector still has allocation value. First, it favors stable varieties; secondly, it can pay attention to the expected differences in high-quality regional banks and investment opportunities in undervalued stock banks.
The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:
In August, social finance stocks grew 7.2% year on year, and the growth rate fell 0.2% month-on-month
In August, social finance added 1.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91 trillion yuan. Among them, social finance loans increased by 0.06 trillion yuan in the same month, a year-on-year decrease of 0.57 trillion yuan; the net financing scale of government bonds was 1.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.36 trillion yuan. By the end of August, the social finance stock was 464.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, and the growth rate declined by 0.2% month-on-month.
Demand for credit financing is still weak
In August, loans increased by 0.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.53 trillion yuan. By the end of August, financial institutions' RMB loan balance was 282.35 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year on year and down 0.2% month on month. On the enterprise side, there was an increase of 0.26 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease. Among them, short-term loans decreased by 0.16 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 0.32 trillion yuan; note financing increased 0.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. On the residential side, there was a decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease. Among them, short-term loans and medium- to long-term loans decreased by 0.12 trillion yuan and 0.08 trillion yuan, respectively.
The M2 growth rate declined month-on-month in August, and the year-on-year deposit growth rate declined
In August, M2 increased 7.5% year on year, and the growth rate declined month-on-month; M1 increased 4.1% year on year, and the growth rate rebounded month-on-month. In August, RMB 1.2 trillion was added to deposits, up 0.86 trillion yuan less than the previous year. The RMB deposit balance grew 7.7% year on year, and the growth rate fell 0.4 percentage points from month to month.
Risk factors: The macroeconomic downturn, corporate solvency has declined beyond expectations, which has had a great impact on banks' asset quality; loose monetary policies have a negative impact on banks' net interest spreads; continued tightening of regulatory policies will also have a certain impact on the industry.