BIS warns: Bitcoin transfer valuation bias is up to six times, and on-chain data is untrue

According to Woofun AI, a recent Bank for International Settlement (BIS) study revealed that the estimation results for Bitcoin transfer values can vary up to six times under different methodologies. This finding directly challenges the traditional perception of on-chain data as an absolute economic fact.

This working paper, published on September 15, provides an in-depth analysis of the structural causes of differences in valuation. The author points out that transaction aggregation methods, classification assumptions about various types of transactions, and the programmability of smart contracts together form the three core factors that caused huge deviations in the measurement results.

Notably, although some statistical models appear to follow uniform calculation rules, their internal implied assumptions are often difficult to show in the overall data. Researchers must decide which on-chain records represent comparable economic events, rather than simply equating all records.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the research team carefully classified 13 million active contracts, which covered about 1.4 million tokens. With the surge in token issuance and the rapid expansion in the number of contracts, it is becoming more difficult to identify activities that make real economic sense.

Furthermore, the comparison of activities between different blockchains has also increased this complexity, making it difficult for single-dimensional indicators to accurately reflect the overall situation.

Cross-chain empirical analysis further confirms this view, particularly the differentiated performance of stablecoins in different networks. The study found that trading activity is highly concentrated on stablecoins, but their economic implications vary from network to network. On Ethereum, stablecoin-related activities are mainly reflected in interaction with smart contracts, reflecting complex operations in the decentralized finance field; on Tron (Tron), stablecoins exist more in the form of independent smart contracts, and this model is more in line with basic transaction requirements and functional positioning of value storage.

If all recorded units are treated as having equal economic value, the ranking of cross-chain activities will blur the essential differences between different types of behavior. Therefore, public data still needs to rely on specific assumptions to effectively correlate technical events with economic activity.