More than six months after the outbreak of the war in Iran, J.P. Morgan oil analysts publicly expressed the views that many traders have privately stated for some time: how this war will end is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. Analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, said in a report that the bank previously believed that several economic red lines the US government was unwilling to break through, including the rise in oil prices above $100 per barrel, gasoline prices approaching $5 per gallon, and the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, have now appeared, making the exit strategy even more uncertain. As energy prices soar, and the resulting ripple effects could disrupt global economic growth and increase inflation, oil traders and analysts are increasingly uncertain how long the war in Iran will last. Recent attacks on critical energy infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia's critical east-west oil pipeline, have heightened market concerns about further tightening supply. Analysts said in a report widely quoted by market participants on Thursday: “We believe the market is currently highly tense.” They said that the reasonable value of oil in September is estimated to be around $90 per barrel, although the current price is close to $106, adding that this means that the market is taking into account the risk of losing an additional 4 million barrels of supply per day on top of the current disrupted supply of 10 million barrels per day.

More than six months after the outbreak of the war in Iran, J.P. Morgan oil analysts publicly expressed the views that many traders have privately stated for some time: how this war will end is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. Analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, said in a report that the bank previously believed that several economic red lines the US government was unwilling to break through, including the rise in oil prices above $100 per barrel, gasoline prices approaching $5 per gallon, and the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, have now appeared, making the exit strategy even more uncertain. As energy prices soar, and the resulting ripple effects could disrupt global economic growth and increase inflation, oil traders and analysts are increasingly uncertain how long the war in Iran will last. Recent attacks on critical energy infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia's critical east-west oil pipeline, have heightened market concerns about further tightening supply. Analysts said in a report widely quoted by market participants on Thursday: “We believe the market is currently highly tense.” They said that the reasonable value of oil in September is estimated to be around $90 per barrel, although the current price is close to $106, adding that this means that the market is taking into account the risk of losing an additional 4 million barrels of supply per day on top of the current disrupted supply of 10 million barrels per day.