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    Learn Why The Bull Case For Caterpillar Stock Could Change Following Autonomous Quarry Expansion

    Simply Wall St·09/18/2026 00:27:27
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    • Luck Stone announced that its autonomous hauling partnership with Caterpillar is expanding to two more Virginia quarries, applying Caterpillar technology to Cat 775 truck fleets after the Bull Run site logged more than 3.5 million tons hauled autonomously since November 2024.
    • This rollout deepens Caterpillar’s role in quarry automation, further integrating its equipment into customer workflows and workforce upskilling as quarry operators look for safer, more consistent production with limited labor.
    • Attention now turns to how Caterpillar’s broader investment narrative is affected by this new autonomous Cat 775 deployment with Luck Stone.

    Scan for other heavy machinery and autonomy plays by reviewing the hand picked 60 AI infrastructure stocks that could benefit as quarry and industrial sites adopt Caterpillar style technology at scale.

    Caterpillar Investment Narrative Recap

    Caterpillar shareholders need to believe the heavy equipment cycle, data center power demand and a record order book can support healthy equipment and services activity while the firm manages tariffs and pricing pressure. The Luck Stone rollout fits that view, since autonomy ties hardware, software and service together and deepens Caterpillar’s role at customer sites.

    In the near term, a key catalyst is how efficiently Caterpillar converts its large backlog and Energy & Transportation demand into earnings while dealer inventory in Construction Industries is worked down. The bigger risk is margin pressure from tariffs, discounting or weaker regional demand, which this autonomy news does not materially change.

    The Luck Stone expansion aligns with Caterpillar’s push into higher tech, higher value offerings. Extending autonomous hauling to Cat 775 quarry trucks, supported by Carter Machinery and complementary loader technology, reinforces the services and software angle that many investors already consider important to the thesis around backlog quality and margins.

    In the same week, Caterpillar stock rose about 2% as the Dow moved higher, and the company prepared to present at Morgan Stanley’s Laguna conference. Together with a record backlog in Power & Energy and mining related demand, the autonomy deployment keeps operational execution, tariff impacts and pricing discipline in focus as key levers for future results.

    Caterpillar's narrative projects US$94.5b revenue and US$17.4b earnings by 2029. This assumes 10.1% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about US$8.0b from US$9.4b today.

    Uncover why Caterpillar's fair value indicates a 22% potential upside to its current price that could narrow quickly.

    NYSE:CAT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:CAT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    One alternate view puts trade protectionism front and centre. The most bearish analysts already expected Caterpillar to reach about US$97.2b of revenue and US$14.7b of earnings by 2029, yet still saw a lower Fair Value. You can read that as a warning that autonomy wins like Luck Stone might not fully offset tariff and competition pressures.

    Explore 8 other Caterpillar fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 70% downside from the current price!

    The Verdict Is Yours

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

    Looking For More Ideas Beyond Caterpillar?

    If the Caterpillar story has piqued your interest, it can pay to widen the lens and scan for other stocks that match the kind of risk, income or balance sheet profile you want in your portfolio. The Simply Wall St Screener is a quick way to surface candidates that fit those filters instead of trawling through tickers one by one.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.