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    NIO (NIO) Could Be 63% Undervalued After Buyback Snub And Onvo Delay

    Simply Wall St·09/18/2026 03:29:16
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    Recent comments from NIO (NYSE:NIO) CEO William Li ruling out a share buyback, paired with a delay to the Onvo launch in Europe, have sharpened attention on liquidity, profitability, and where management is prioritizing capital.

    At a share price of US$3.62, NIO has seen short-term strength with a 1-week share price return of 1.12%. However, momentum has been weak over longer periods, with the 30-day share price return down 20.09% and the year-to-date share price return down 29.57%.

    That softer trend aligns with concerns around dilution, liquidity and profitability, and is also visible over a longer horizon. The 1-year total shareholder return is down 50.88% and the 5-year total shareholder return has declined 89.95%, despite recent commentary about doubling down on premium models, AI capabilities and a delayed European rollout for Onvo.

    Pressure test NIO's story by comparing it with a hand picked group of stronger balance sheet plays in our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (23 results).

    NIO’s sharp slide and brief bounce can either read as a verdict on the business or a fast swing in sentiment. Which story fits the current valuation?

    Most Popular Narrative: 63% Undervalued

    Compared with NIO's last close at $3.62, the most followed narrative anchors fair value much higher at $9.82 and ties that gap to a very specific delivery and margin story.

    While the analyst consensus expects NIO's new product cycle and multi-brand expansion to boost sales and market share, the current extraordinary backlog and rapid production ramp for L90, ES8, L60, and FIREFLY reveals that demand is outstripping even the company's own high expectations, positioning NIO for a steeper, sustained delivery growth curve. Although analysts broadly anticipate vehicle margin recovery from cost controls, management is guiding for group-level vehicle gross margins of 16 to 17 percent in the coming quarter and targets 20 percent longer term, with the potential for higher margins of 25 percent on flagship models. This margin profile could support a path to operating profitability and materially different earnings outcomes than current consensus forecasts.

    See why 22 investors see NIO as 63% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $9.82 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the bullish NIO narrative leans heavily on execution. Continued net losses and high cash needs, as well as supply bottlenecks and pricing pressure in China, could quickly weaken it.

    Find out about the key risks to this NIO narrative.

    Next Steps

    If the split sentiment on NIO leaves you undecided, act promptly, review the underlying metrics yourself, and use 3 key rewards to help identify where any potential upside may lie.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond NIO?

    If NIO has you thinking more about risk, return, and balance sheets, consider broadening your watchlist with a few focused idea streams.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.