Damo says AI “amplifies winners and does not reset the pattern”: Douyin, Taobao and Tmall grab shares, Tencent and Meituan benefit from a closed loop of transactions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley recently released the sixth AlphaWise China Advertiser Research Report, showing that AI advertising first changed the budget share pattern before expanding the overall potential market size (TAM). AI will further widen the advertising budget gap between platforms, push leading platforms deeper into the commercial workflow, and release more room for commercial growth. Key overbids (OW): Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan.

Damo pointed out in the report that as AI applications continue to deepen, capital reallocation is prioritized over market size expansion. 72% of AI users will reallocate their existing advertising budgets; 74% reported a further increase in the concentration of funds invested by the platform.

AI widens the gap between platforms rather than reshaping the industry landscape. Douyin and Taobao/Tmall achieved the largest share increases; Tencent and Meituan benefited from the integration of product capabilities and a closed-loop trading ecosystem.

The bank expects that by 2030, the total scale of AI commercialization that can be counted will reach 291 billion yuan; by 2040, the candidate collection advertising scale will reach 319 billion yuan, and the AI attribution commission will reach 1.24 trillion yuan.

The bank proposed two major stages of development: the profit transition phase in 2030 and the maturity stage of the industry in 2040. By 2030, industry value will mainly come from improved advertising monetization efficiency, budget reallocation, and migration to high-intent search and intelligent proxy traffic scenarios. The total scale of AI commercialization is 291 billion yuan.

By 2040, as intelligent agent workflows and closed-loop attribution mechanisms mature, the bank estimates AI-mediated advertising revenue of 319 billion yuan and AI-attributed transaction commissions of 1.24 trillion yuan; after eliminating traditional business encroachment effects and partner sharing, the actual net increase in the overall market will decrease.

The key to value capture is commercial control, not simply model technology leadership. The platform uses three paths to cash out AI revenue:

1. Predictive AI improves the monetization efficiency of existing traffic; it can transform model matching advantages into a platform for advertisers to increase ROI, and can obtain higher budgets.

2. Candidate convergence layer upgrade: shift of commercial activities to high-value search and intelligent proxy scenarios (such as WeChat search, Kuaishou search, upcoming WeChat AI intelligent agents, and independent AI applications). Independent AI and embedded AI can grasp user portals; content platforms can transform user attention into consumption intentions; and trading platforms can expand user discovery processes upstream.

3. Upgrade the transaction layer, build a merchant operating system, and obtain commission income and income related to the continuous merchant workflow; it is beneficial to the platform for grasping settlement capacity and performance data.

Damo believes that AI has amplified the platform's original advantages rather than resetting the competitive landscape. Douyin and Taobao/Tmall are structurally the most determined share beneficiaries; WeChat has sufficient risk resistance and at the same time has room for growth brought about by product integration; Meituan benefits from the closed-loop commercial logic of transactions. Kuaishou and Baidu still have a chance to fix it.