Groupama AM sees Fed funds target rising to 4.25%-4.5% as neutral rate estimate climbs

• Groupama AM flagged a shift in Fed thinking toward a higher neutral policy rate, following a 25-bp hike to a 3.75%-4% Fed Funds range.
• Further tightening seen as likely, with the median dot for the equilibrium Fed Funds rate raised to 3.25% from 3.06% in June.
• Base case calls for another hike by year-end, with 16 of 18 policymakers projecting additional tightening.
• Groupama AM set a 4.25%-4.5% target range for Fed Funds, citing resilient growth, productivity gains, inflation risks tied to commodities.
• Scenario could shift if financial conditions tighten further or if inflation methodology changes show a sharper disinflation trend.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Groupama Asset Management SA published the original content used to generate this news brief on September 17, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.