J.P. Morgan said that for the first time since the US-Iran conflict broke out, the bank was unable to provide a clear benchmark scenario. Previously, it believed that the price of 100 US dollars/barrel of oil, 5 US dollars/gallon of gasoline, 4% overall inflation, or a 10-year US bond yield breaking 5% could become a “red line” of US policy and push for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, after six months, several thresholds have been broken, and the conflict's exit path is even more blurred. However, J.P. Morgan believes that a further sharp rise in crude oil is not inevitable; the key is how the market can rebalance through inventories and demand. The bank anticipated in April that the conflict would cause inventory consumption of about 1.6 billion barrels, rapidly approaching the operating limit from 8.4 billion barrels; in fact, up to now, global stocks of crude oil and refined oil products have been reduced by only 555 million barrels, about one-third of the previous forecast.

J.P. Morgan said that for the first time since the US-Iran conflict broke out, the bank was unable to provide a clear benchmark scenario. Previously, it believed that the price of 100 US dollars/barrel of oil, 5 US dollars/gallon of gasoline, 4% overall inflation, or a 10-year US bond yield breaking 5% could become a “red line” of US policy and push for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, after six months, several thresholds have been broken, and the conflict's exit path is even more blurred. However, J.P. Morgan believes that a further sharp rise in crude oil is not inevitable; the key is how the market can rebalance through inventories and demand. The bank anticipated in April that the conflict would cause inventory consumption of about 1.6 billion barrels, rapidly approaching the operating limit from 8.4 billion barrels; in fact, up to now, global stocks of crude oil and refined oil products have been reduced by only 555 million barrels, about one-third of the previous forecast.