Cattle Markets Make Weekly low and Consolidate
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The Cattle futures markets started the week on a high note, rallying to new highs for the recent up move. October Feeder Cattle made its high on Monday and December Live Cattle made its high on Tuesday and then the bottom fell as futures broke down the rest of the week with the rumor mill swirling around White House noise that the President was going to make an announcement banning beef and diesel exports that put algos in sell mode for the rest of the week. This was also the week for the Cattle on Feed report and talking heads kept talking about how we will have the fifth consecutive month of higher a than last year monthly on feed number and how bearish that is for the market. Always something negative to keep a lid on cattle prices. You get something positive going on and some(one/ thing) puts out a line that creates uncertainty and the computers do their thing, in my opinion. My take on the on-feed numbers being higher than last year is you are putting more weight on cattle to up production numbers so the cattle have to stay in the feedlot longer than what everyone is used to and with cattle slaughter lower than prior years you have an on-feed number that looks higher than it may be really is. I don’t think that is bearish. Whoever is putting out these rumors that affect cattle needs to be thwarted in my opinion as it puts pressure on cattle prices and is unfair to the producer. This should be looked into as it happens way too often. With all the pressure on producers because of the desire to reduce beef prices, rumors do not help they hurt. Mexico is coming on line as the USDA has stated its intention to gradually open the border for cattle imports. The Douglas, Arizona port is open and with a few hiccups, the break downs of equipment hindering imports for a week, it has been successful enough to allow the USDA to open another port of entry. It will be the Santa Teresa, New Mexico port which also happens to be the largest port of entry for cattle. It has brought in up to 43% of the cattle from Mexico over the years. They will start out with around 750 head per day to come in from Mexico. This also put some pressure on futures this week even though it was known the USDA will open 1 port per month if all conditions were met with the prior opened port. Things are going as expected so the port will open which, in my opinion shouldn’t have been a surprise. But, with the rumor mill working overtime, the opening of the second port created more uncertainty and prices traded lower as a result. Friday saw the price action move from lower to higher all session with December Live Cattle ending on the positive side while the October Feeder Cattle ended up on the negative side of the previous day’s settlement. This was a day of back and forth as traders awaited the Cattle on Feed report which was to come out after the close. In my opinion the report is bullish for cattle prices and you can see the summary below. We’ll see!... October Feeder Cattle opened higher and traded to the high before breaking down to the low , all in the first 10 minutes of trade. The high came in at 325.925 and the low at 321.95. The price action waffled back and forth and settled at 323.50. It formed a spinning top candlestick indicating indecision in the price action. A rally past the high could see price test resistance at 326.875. Resistance then comes in at 329.075. A failure below the low could test support at 321.00 and then 319.45. Support then comes in at 314.20. December Live Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the October contract. It also made its high and then the low in the first 10 minutes of the session. The high was at 217.50 and the low at 214.625. It settled at 216.625. A spinning top formation prevailed here also. If settlement holds price could test resistance at 217.75. Resistance then comes in at 218.625. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 215.60. Support then comes in at 214.325.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 342.50 as of 09/17/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 0.21 to 371.94 and select increased 1.38 to 353.26. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 18.68 and the load count was 86.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 101,000, which is below last week’s 106,000 and above last year’s 90,611. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 8,000, which is below last week’s 70,000 and above last year’s 4,789. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 529,000, which is above last week’s 505,000 and below last year’s 559,270.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt has been light on light to moderate demand. A few live purchases were noted in Nebraska at 222.50 however not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in Nebraska for live purchases was on Thursday mostly at 222.00-223.00. In Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt, the last established market test for dressed purchases was Thursday, mostly at 350.00. The last established market test for live purchases in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday at 220.00-223.00, mostly at 222.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 220.00 – 224.00 and from 346.00 – 355.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2026. The inventory was 1 percent above September 1, 2025.
Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.62 million head, 9 percent below 2025. Net placements were 1.57 million head. Placements were the lowest for August since the series began in 1996. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 240,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 355,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 387,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 230,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 85,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.52 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Marketings were the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.
Other disappearance totaled 52,000 head during August, 2 percent above 2025.
Trade Strategy:
February 2027 Live Cattle Options Strategy
Sell the February 2027 Live Cattle 250/230 put spread at 17 cents.
- Premium collected: $6,800, less commissions and fees
- Maximum risk: $1,200, plus commissions and fees
- Margin requirement: $1,104
- Risk management: Consider limiting risk to 200 points ($800) plus commissions and fees
- Profit objective: Work a bid to buy back the spread at 7 cents
- Potential gain: Approximately $4,000, less commissions and fees
- Premium collected: $1,250.00, less commissions and fees(250 points) per spread
- Maximum risk: $3,750, plus commissions and fees per spread
Feeder Cattle Opportunity:
Sell the January 2027 Feeder Cattle 330/320 put spread for 700 points a $3,500.00 credit. Buy
the March Feeder Cattle 340 Call for 450 points a $2,250.00 debit.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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