Prediction: Here's What a $1,000 Investment in Tesla (TSLA) Stock Could Be Worth By 2036

Electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been an amazing wealth builder for its long-term investors. Check out the average annual returns below:

Time period Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »	Tesla's average annual return
Past 1 year	(15.1%)
Past 3 years	9.3%
Past 5 years	7.3%
Past 10 years	38.6%
Past 15 years	45.7%

Source: Data from Morningstar.com as of September 16, 2026.

See? If you invested in the company 15 years ago, you would have increased the value of your stake some 282-fold. The company itself was recently valued at $1.4 trillion.

The story is a little different over the past five years, though, which feature slower growth and some loss of value. But what matters most to most investors should be what's ahead, not behind -- so how should you expect Tesla to grow over the coming decade?

No one can know exactly how Tesla will do. But let's make an educated and somewhat conservative guess. Over many decades, the stock market has averaged annual gains of close to 10%. Tesla could be expected to generally outperform that. If you plunk $1,000 into Tesla now and the stock grows at, say, 18% annually, your stake will be worth $5,234 a decade hence.

How accurate is that estimate?

Not very. Tesla might grow more slowly because:

• Its operating profit margin has been shrinking recently.
• Its valuation is arguably quite steep -- with a recent forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 152, well above the five-year average of 78.
• It's facing competition, from Chinese EV maker BYD and others.

But it might also grow briskly because:

• Its Cybercab business could take off, as might its Optimus humanoid robots.
• Tesla has a formidable cash cushion, which can help it build new businesses, such as its robotaxis.
• It might get favorable regulatory treatment. In Texas, for instance, it got a 50% tax break on its $10 billion solar factory.

Since Tesla is involved in so many dynamic businesses, it's very hard to estimate where it will be in a decade. A 4.2x return looks like a sensible estimate, at least.

Selena Maranjian has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends BYD Company. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.