Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Could Be 37% Undervalued On Its Q3 2026 Dividend Affirmation
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) just affirmed a quarterly dividend of $0.47 per class A share for the third quarter of 2026, with payment scheduled for October 15 to holders on September 30.
That payout comes against a weak price backdrop for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, with the share price at US$13.27 after sliding 7.0% over the past month and 26.3% over 90 days. The 1 year total shareholder return is also down, pointing to fading momentum despite the income stream.
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Blackstone Mortgage Trust now trades well below the average analyst price target, yet the long slide in returns signals real market concern. Is this a simple discount or a warning that caution on the valuation is deserved?
Most Popular Narrative: 37% Undervalued
Blackstone Mortgage Trust's most followed valuation view anchors on a fair value of $21.00 against the last close at $13.27, which points to a sizeable gap that the market has not closed. That disconnect sits alongside weak recent returns and a high headline yield. As a result, understanding what could shift sentiment becomes critical.
The launch of a net lease investment strategy, particularly in defensive business sectors, is expected to provide stable cash flows, enhancing the diversification and resilience of the revenue stream, which could support consistent revenue growth.
See why 6 investors see Blackstone Mortgage Trust as 37% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $21 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, tariff policy uncertainty and nearly US$970 million of impaired loans that accrue costs without income could quickly challenge the bullish Blackstone Mortgage Trust re rating story.
Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative.
Another View on Blackstone Mortgage Trust's Valuation
The first narrative pegs Blackstone Mortgage Trust around a $21 fair value, which implies upside from the current $13.27 share price. A simple P/E check tells a very different story. BXMT trades on about 146.6x earnings, while the US Mortgage REITs group sits near 8.3x and peers average 14.3x. The fair ratio sits closer to 49.5x, which still comes in far below the current multiple and suggests real valuation risk if expectations reset.
For investors weighing these conflicting signals, the question is whether the earnings outlook justifies paying several times both the industry level and that fair ratio, or whether it makes sense to treat the discount to targets more cautiously in light of this premium.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Mixed signals around Blackstone Mortgage Trust's valuation and income can be confusing, so move quickly, stress test the numbers yourself, and then weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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