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    Does EBITDA Jump Change The Bull Case For Nexa Resources Stock (NEXA)?

    Simply Wall St·09/20/2026 19:17:35
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    • Nexa Resources reported adjusted EBITDA of US$569 million for the first half of 2026, a 99% year over year rise supported by stronger pricing, higher sales volumes and better operational execution, while zinc production grew 13% despite temporary constraints.
    • The sharp improvement in profitability and zinc output comes alongside higher trading volumes in Nexa Resources shares, suggesting that operational delivery in a tight metals market is drawing more investor attention than usual.
    • Next, the focus shifts to how Nexa Resources' sharply higher first half 2026 EBITDA affects the existing investment narrative around volume, pricing and risk.

    Scan beyond Nexa Resources and see how other metals producers with rising volumes and earnings momentum line up in our curated list of 17 top copper producer stocks.

    Nexa Resources Investment Narrative Recap

    Owning Nexa Resources means believing that zinc, copper and silver operations can stay efficient enough to support cash flow even if headline revenue expectations are muted. The recent jump in adjusted EBITDA to US$569 million in the first half of 2026 and 13% zinc production growth suggest the operating engine is working. The key near term swing factor remains execution at Aripuana and the smelting assets, where stable throughput and costs will matter more than short term price moves.

    The biggest current risk sits on the other side of that equation. Heavy exposure to metal prices, a high level of debt and sizeable CapEx needs leave little room if volumes slip or pricing weakens from current levels. The latest results do not remove those pressures. They show that Nexa Resources is entering this phase with better recent profitability and some evidence of operational traction at the mines.

    The latest data point that ties closest to this move is the first half 2026 performance update. Nexa Resources reported adjusted EBITDA of US$569 million, almost double the prior year period, with support from a firmer pricing backdrop, higher sales volumes and better execution. Zinc output increased 13%, which directly feeds into the volume led parts of the thesis around Aripuana and the broader mine portfolio.

    That sort of step up gives more room to pursue priorities already on the table. Management has talked about reducing gross debt by roughly US$500 million to US$600 million over several years and about reaching nameplate capacity at Aripuana only in the second half of 2026. Stronger recent earnings and volumes help those goals look more attainable, while the underlying risks around commodity pricing, workforce turnover and high reinvestment needs remain in clear view for anyone considering Nexa Resources.

    Nexa Resources' current analyst narrative points to revenues of US$3.3b and earnings of US$259.9 million by 2029. This is based on a revenue path that assumes a 1.1% yearly decline and a move from US$277.6 million in earnings today to the 2029 consensus, which is a drop of about US$17.7 million rather than an increase.

    Uncover why Nexa Resources' fair value indicates a 15% potential upside to its current price, which could close sooner than many investors expect.

    NYSE:NEXA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:NEXA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    For Nexa Resources, the most bearish analysts focused on Aripuana as a major risk. They saw delays and higher costs keeping pressure on cash generation, and forecast revenues of about US$3.1b and earnings of only US$166.7 million by 2029. Those views predate this EBITDA jump, so expectations may change as opinions are updated.

    Explore 3 other Nexa Resources fair value estimates, including one that suggests it could be worth just $14.79.

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so consider trusting your own analysis.

    Looking For More Ideas Beyond Nexa Resources?

    If the latest Nexa Resources update has sharpened your view on metals and miners, it can help to compare that thesis with opportunities in other areas of the market. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you filter for the traits you care about most, so you can build a watchlist that actually fits your approach rather than copying consensus lists.

    • If capital preservation comes first for you, start with companies that have steadier profiles and review a curated group of 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores with more resilient characteristics.
    • Income focused investors can zero in on consistency and payout strength by scanning through 7 dividend fortresses that combine higher yields with more robust fundamentals.
    • Those hunting for opportunities that the crowd might be overlooking can sift through 16 high quality undiscovered gems where quality metrics and underlying business strength are already in place.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.