Jibang Consulting: Cost pressure compounded demand weakens, and the utilization rate of large-generation panels is expected to drop to 79.6% in October

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's latest panel industry research, due to high AI demand, the panel industry's upstream material production capacity is being squeezed out. It is estimated that the total cost of TV panels will increase by 4% to 7% in the fourth quarter of 2026. At the same time, due to increased cost pressure from downstream customers and the end of peak season preparation in the third quarter, TV panel demand (units) is expected to decrease by 4% month-on-month in the fourth quarter. Faced with the dual changes of rising costs and weakening demand, the three major panel manufacturers BOE (BOE), TCL CSOT (TCL Huaxing), and HKC (Huike) each decided to use the 11-day holiday period to cut production in response to the decline in client demand. It is estimated that the operating rate of the 5th generation line and above will decrease 4.2 percentage points month-on-month to 79.6% in October.

Looking at the supply side, as some panel manufacturers have withdrawn from the TV market one after another, the current supply map is relatively concentrated on a few major manufacturers, and the three major panel manufacturers in mainland China together account for 70% of the supply. On the other hand, due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment, IT panels such as notebooks and monitors were prepared ahead of schedule in the first half of 2026 due to customer demand, and order momentum slowed significantly in the second half of the year.

In this context, even when entering the TV panel market, these manufacturers tend to be cautious and conservative in terms of strategy, prioritizing the goal of maintaining profits rather than seizing market share.

According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting, BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC consider factors such as their own operating strategies, reducing the risk of inventory accumulation, and maintaining stable TV panel market prices, and mainly target the TV panel factory area, and plan to implement vacations and production cuts during the October holiday period.

Currently, the three manufacturers' back-end assembly production line vacation schedule is as follows: HKC H1 plant is on vacation for 7 days; H2 and H4 plants are on vacation for 5 days; TCL CSOT T1, T6 and T10 plants are all on vacation for 7 days; BOE 10.5 is also planning to take 4 to 5 days off. In response to the vacation schedule for the later assembly line, the panel factory will also simultaneously cut production in the early stage to maintain the balance between supply and demand in the production line, which also lays a favorable foundation for stabilizing panel prices in the fourth quarter.