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    Meta Platforms (META) Launches Muse AI, Is The Stock 35% Undervalued?

    Simply Wall St·09/21/2026 07:26:04
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    Meta Platforms (META) is back in focus after a fresh wave of AI headlines, including the launch of its Muse personal assistant and rising expectations around the upcoming Connect event on 23 September.

    Recent price action shows that enthusiasm around Meta Platforms’ AI push is meeting some profit taking. The share price has climbed 21.1% over the past 30 days and 18.4% over 90 days. Yet year to date it is only up 2.4%, while the 1 year total shareholder return, which includes dividends, is down 12.8%, compared with a much stronger 3 year total shareholder return of about 123%.

    Spot fresh AI momentum at Meta Platforms, then scan a curated set of other potential beneficiaries across infrastructure and hardware with 88 AI infrastructure stocks.

    For Meta Platforms, the recent surge sits at the crossroads of stronger business metrics and a mood shift back in its favour. The next step is to see how that balance shows up in the valuation.

    Most Popular Narrative: 35% Undervalued

    Meta Platforms last closed at $665.75, while the most followed narrative on the stock pegs fair value closer to $1,018.71. That gap frames the AI spend, the ad engine, and the wider business as a single, big bet on where digital commerce goes next.

    This is what the capex is for.

    The spending is not subtle. Meta's capital expenditure ran to $72.2 billion in 2025. Guidance for 2026 has since been lifted to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion. The company is roughly doubling its infrastructure bill in a single year, and when it raised the range in April, the stock fell on the news.

    See why 138 investors see Meta Platforms as 35% undervalued.

    According to mitchell_lawler, that outlay is aimed at turning Meta Platforms from a media outlet that sells ad slots into an engine that influences what people buy and then takes a cut of the transaction. The thesis leans heavily on AI driven recommendation systems, a family of apps reaching billions of daily users, and the idea that more efficient ad targeting can expand overall marketing budgets rather than shrink them.

    The same narrative flags meaningful risks around unproven payback on projected capex of $125b to $145b, lower recent profit margins, and ongoing Reality Labs losses of roughly $4b each quarter. It also points to regulation and data rules as key swing factors, since the targeting edge depends on how privacy frameworks evolve.

    Result: Fair Value of $1,018.71 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the Meta Platforms story can break if regulators tighten data rules around targeting or if heavy Reality Labs losses continue to drag on overall profitability.

    Find out about the key risks to this Meta Platforms narrative.

    Next Steps

    If the Meta Platforms story feels pulled between excitement and caution, treat that tension as your cue to move quickly and test the numbers yourself. For a closer look at what the market currently views as the upside, check out the 2 key rewards.

    Looking for more Meta Platforms investment ideas?

    If the Meta Platforms setup has you thinking about what else could sit in your portfolio, broaden your search now so you are not chasing later.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.