US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes are rising sharply, Sino-US economic and trade negotiations are being held in the US. The President of Iran went to the US to attend the United Nations General Assembly
Pre-market market trends
1. On September 21 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.90%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.72%, and NASDAQ futures were up 1.07%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 1.20%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 1.06%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.35%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.79% to $93.40 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.75% to $101.01 per barrel.
Market news
The Sino-US economic and trade negotiations were held in New York, USA. On September 20, local time, Chinese leader of Sino-US trade and Vice Premier He Lifeng held economic and trade negotiations with US leader, US Treasury Secretary Bezent, and trade representative Greer in New York, USA. Guided by the important consensus of the heads of state of the two countries and upholding the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, the two sides had candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues of common concern to both sides, such as implementing previous economic and trade negotiations and promoting bilateral trade and investment, and held dialogues on issues related to artificial intelligence.
On the eve of the General Assembly, the US and Iran clashed. Trump went out of his way to destroy Iran, and Tehran warned of painful retaliation. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated before the UN General Assembly was held. Trump threatened that if Tehran did not reach an agreement, the US would destroy Iran's economy or eliminate its leadership, and said he was willing to meet with Iranian President Pezzahizyan during the General Assembly. The Iranian military said intelligence showed that the US and its allies were preparing a new round of large-scale attacks, and warned of “painful” retaliation in the Middle East. The two sides have been at odds for seven months since the June Memorandum broke down. A diplomatic delegation led by Pezechyan is expected to attend the General Assembly this week and meet with leaders of many countries.
Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby: Demand may drive up inflation, and policies need to be vigilant. Goulsby said that US inflation is not only affected by tariffs and energy shocks, but strong demand is also boosting inflation. Supply shocks are becoming more frequent and long-lasting, and must be taken into account in monetary policy considerations. If demand overheats, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates. Investments in AI may increase output beyond what the economy can absorb. If there is no evidence that the shock subsides, the only way to return to 2% inflation is to raise interest rates and risk a slowdown.
US diesel prices have reached a record high, and global supply constraints have intensified. Retail diesel prices in the US topped $6.50 per gallon for the first time, and the war-driven rise is affecting the world's largest economy. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average price rose to about $6.51 per gallon. The rise has accelerated since September, with a cumulative increase of more than 80 cents in the same month, rising almost every day, and breaking through the 2022 peak. In response, there are reports that US President Trump said he is very worried about rising diesel prices and wants to ensure that Russia's diesel supply can enter the global market to mitigate the rise in oil prices. Trump continues to pressure Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries.
Data Center Watch: About 45 data center projects in the US were halted or postponed in the second quarter due to local opposition, with a total value of 68 billion US dollars. Research agency Data Center Watch said on September 21, local time, that between April and June this year, about 45 US data center projects with a total value of 68 billion US dollars were suspended or postponed due to local opposition. Currently, communities in many parts of the United States are pushing for a ban to suspend the construction of data centers, and related actions are often initiated before developers officially apply for permission. According to the Data Center Watch report, about 30 state legislatures have proposed or passed relevant regulations relating to data center site selection, power supply, and water use issues.
Bitcoin once reached the $85,000 mark: ETF funds turned a thrilling correction in a single week, and the SEC tokenization exemption lit up the mood. Bitcoin once rose to $85,000 on Monday. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a total of about 593 million US dollars on Thursday and Friday trading days, offsetting heavy redemptions in the previous two days, pulling the entire week's capital account back to a positive value from the edge of net outflow, and barely recorded a net increase of about 6 million US dollars throughout the week. This round of emotional healing comes after a week of “serious injury” to digital assets — the landmark crypto bill collapsed in the Senate and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The turning point came last Thursday: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light to start trading “digital securities” in the US.
Individual stock news
The Greenland security agreement will be signed, and mining stocks will rise as high as 160% before the market. The United States, Denmark, and Greenland are about to sign a new Greenland security agreement this Tuesday. Although the agreement has yet to be formally signed, Greenland-related mining stocks have already reacted violently. Greenland Energy (GLND.US) is up 160% in the premarket, Greenland Mines (GRML.US) is up more than 90%, and Critical Metals Corp. (CRML.US) is up more than 24% in the premarket.
Intel (INTC.US) teamed up with AUO to lay out advanced Micro LED packages. Intel and AUO have reached a cooperation to jointly lay out advanced micro LED packaging technology, with the goal of integrating CPO (co-packaged optics) and high-density computing power into the market. In the context of bursting demand for AI computing power and traditional pluggable optical modules facing power consumption and bandwidth bottlenecks, CPO is seen as a key technology path for next-generation data center interconnection, and Micro LED is an important light source solution. This collaboration combines Intel's advanced packaging capabilities with AUO's display technology accumulation, strengthening its layout in the field of AI infrastructure.
Analysts boldly predict that Micron (MU.US)'s profit for the 2027 fiscal year is expected to surpass Microsoft (MSFT.US), and storage prices will be the winners and losers. Daniel Sparks, an analyst at The Motley Fool, predicts that Micron's profit will surpass Microsoft by the 2027 fiscal year. This is a bold decision that relies almost entirely on the price of storage. According to Micron's latest guidelines, net profit for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 may reach approximately US$35 billion. At this pace, it could surpass Microsoft's profit for the 2027 fiscal year. For Microsoft, the 2026 fiscal year ending June 30 is the strongest year in the software giant's history: revenue increased 18% to US$331.8 billion, and net profit increased 31% year-on-year to US$133.7 billion.
The Big Four AI companies have been prosecuted: the joint statement to slow down AI development is an illegal agreement. Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX (SPCX.US), and Google (GOOGL.US) were sued by users on Friday after calling for a slowdown in AI development. The lawsuit alleges that the four companies illegally coordinated to slow down development, violate antitrust laws, and damage the value of paid subscriptions to ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and Gemini. The lawsuit alleges that coordination has been in preparation for several months, and it also cites a July executive statement calling for a global slowdown in AI automation, admitting that competitive pressure is enormous. However, as AI anxiety heats up, New York Governor Kathy Hochul will announce the next steps to implement the RAISE Act on Monday. The bill is New York State's landmark AI security legislation and will take effect in January next year.
The NASDAQ 100 quarterly adjustment is about to take effect! SpaceX's weight will double to 2.82%. According to reports, as the Nasdaq 100 index quarterly adjustment takes effect on Monday (September 21), SpaceX's weight in the index will more than double to 2.82%. This adjustment is based on the closing price calculation of last Friday (September 18), confirming the weight level previously estimated. This will make the space and satellite giant's weight in the index more in line with its huge market valuation.
Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) proposed a $23 billion pipeline blueprint, but the market didn't buy it! Novo Nordisk plans to launch more than five major drugs in the next few years or so, and the Danish pharmaceutical company is trying to stay competitive in the increasingly crowded obesity treatment market. The company promised on Capital Markets Day that it will launch more than five major drugs in the next few years and achieve additional sales of more than 23 billion US dollars. However, Novo Nordisk's ADR (NVO.US) stock weakened sharply before the US market on Monday, and once plummeted by more than 7%.
Toyota plans to accelerate factory automation: Starting in 2028, it may cost 1 trillion yen per year, and about 400,000 robots will be needed. Toyota estimates that modernizing its factory may cost 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion) a year starting in 2028. The company is speeding up the deployment of automation and robotics. The investment estimate covers Toyota, group companies, and major suppliers. The company did not specify whether the investment will be implemented or how many years it will last, but told investors that it would take approximately 400,000 robots for these companies to automate their factories. This number includes existing machine replacements and new installations, as well as humanoid and non-humanoid robots. The potential investment was discussed with investors earlier this month and involves factory automation, covering industrial robotics, automated logistics, and human-robot collaboration on future factory floors.
Key economic data and event forecasts
23:00 Beijing time: ECB President Lagarde gives opening remarks at a ECB round table.
23:20 Beijing time: Bank of Canada Governor Maclum delivered a speech.