Groupama AM sees Bank of England raising rates 25 bps in November 2026 on persistent energy-driven inflation risk

• Groupama Asset Management flagged a more hawkish Bank of England stance despite holding the policy rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote.
• Energy-price risks drove a higher inflation path, seen at 3.75% in Q4 2026, above the 3.2% projection in July.
• Inflation was seen slightly above 4% in Q1 2027, raising concern over second-round effects via wages and pricing.
• Groupama now expects a precautionary 25-basis-point rate hike in November 2026, not the start of a sustained tightening cycle.
• Quantitative tightening was set to continue, with balance-sheet runoff averaging GBP 46 billion a year, including GBP 20 billion of active sales.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Groupama Asset Management SA published the original content used to generate this news brief on September 18, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.