Dongwu Securities: Power supply upgrade three times, AI chip inductor value expansion
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the power density and power supply current of AI servers have increased, and the value of AI chip inductors has increased. The rapid increase in power consumption of a single GPU has led to a sharp rise in the volume and price of AI chip inductors for complete machines (cabinets). The global AI chip inductor industry market size will grow from 1.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.8 billion yuan in 2025, and is expected to reach 26.9 billion yuan in 2030; localization of emerging racetracks is rapidly catching up, and TLVR is expected to greatly increase the value of inductors. In terms of investment proposals, the power density and power supply current of AI servers have increased, and the value of AI chip inductors has increased.
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
Inductors: core passive components that stabilize current
AI chip inductors are mainly used in triple power supply scenarios. Inductors are one of the three basic passive components, and are the second largest component after capacitors. According to downstream applications, they can be divided into traditional inductors used in consumer electronics, automobiles, photovoltaics, etc., and AI chip inductors for tertiary power supplies. In the data center scenario, traditional wire-wound inductors can be used for primary and secondary power supplies (computer room/motherboard power supply), while AI chip inductors can be used in power supply circuits for high-performance AI accelerator chips such as triple-power GPUs, ASICs, and FPGAs. They are also equipped with optical modules and high-speed memory chips, which can also meet the power supply requirements of endside hardware AI chips.
The power consumption of a single GPU has increased rapidly, leading to a sharp rise in the volume and price of AI chip inductors in the whole machine (cabinet)
The power consumption of Nvidia's single GPU has been increased to about 1800-2300W. The power supply current increase requires increasing the number of power supply phases to gradually shift to VPD, and each phase requires a chip inductor; at the same time, higher current density and heat dissipation requirements drive the development of AI chip inductors in the direction of higher rated current, better high frequency performance, and higher reliability, putting forward endogenous requirements for upstream alloy magnetic powder quality and advanced processes such as downstream TLVR and copper-iron co-firing. In the future, the unit price of TLVR inductors may reach 3-5 times that of ordinary inductors, driving the volume and price of stand-alone (cabinet) chip inductors to rise sharply. It is estimated that the number of new-generation VR 200 NVL72 single cabinet chip inductors will reach 6,000-7,000, and the estimated value can reach tens of thousands of yuan. Demand for computing power is surging, and the deployment of high-performance chips and next-generation memories is accelerating. The market size of the global AI chip inductor industry will grow from 1.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 38.2%; it is expected to reach 26.9 billion yuan in 2030, with a CAGR of 36.0%.
Traditional inductors are dominated by Japan and Taiwan, and localization of emerging racetracks is rapidly catching up. TLVR is expected to greatly increase the value of inductors
The traditional inductor competition pattern is scattered and growth is limited, with Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers such as TDK, Murata, and Qiankun taking absolute dominance. Compared with traditional inductors, the gross margin of AI chip inductors can be increased by 10-30 percentage points, and profitability is strong. In the context of AI server growth, domestic manufacturers quickly entered the AI chip inductor market, and Shunluo and Platinum have entered the top five in the world. Chip inductor products have a short life cycle and rapid downstream iteration, enabling domestic manufacturers to accelerate investment in high-end production capacity such as TLVR and chip inductors, and enter the supply chain of large manufacturers. With the influx of production capacity and increased competition in the industry, the current unit price of mainstream thermocompression integrated inductors is under pressure, and the unit price of next-generation TLVR inductor technology is expected to increase due to the difficulty, providing additional value increases.
Magnetic materials and customer relationships are competitive barriers for chip inductors, and value technological breakthroughs and customer development capabilities
Currently, magnetic materials account for 50% to 70% of the raw material cost of inductors. High-end magnetic powders such as iron, nickel, and amorphous have broad application prospects, but are technically difficult and expensive. Magnetic powder formulations can reduce downstream inductance process requirements and bypass mass production yield problems with new technologies such as copper-iron co-firing. The inductor manufacturing process requires a long time for customer certification, and the customer stickiness is strong. AI server manufacturers require highly customized material numbers, and require testing, verification, and pre-research processes with suppliers.
Risk warning: AI capital expenditure growth is slowing down, technology route substitution, increased price competition, fluctuating raw material prices, geopolitical and trade frictions, falling short of expectations in production capacity, and customer concentration risks.