Bank of America raised the average price forecast for Brent crude oil from $83 to $95 per barrel for the second half of 2026, mainly considering ongoing geopolitical tension and transportation restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank estimates that during the blockage of the strait, the scale of crude oil transportation disturbances may have reached about 14 million barrels per day at one point, while the normal flow rate before the war was about 4 million to 8 million barrels per day. Although alternative transportation routes and escort traffic have eased some supply pressure, damage to infrastructure and regional tension may still restrict the flow of crude oil. Bank of America believes that if the related disturbances continue until next year, there is still a risk that the Brent contract will rise further in recent months. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil fell below $100 per barrel on Tuesday as market expectations about the progress of US-Iran diplomacy and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz heated up.

Bank of America raised the average price forecast for Brent crude oil from $83 to $95 per barrel for the second half of 2026, mainly considering ongoing geopolitical tension and transportation restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank estimates that during the blockage of the strait, the scale of crude oil transportation disturbances may have reached about 14 million barrels per day at one point, while the normal flow rate before the war was about 4 million to 8 million barrels per day. Although alternative transportation routes and escort traffic have eased some supply pressure, damage to infrastructure and regional tension may still restrict the flow of crude oil. Bank of America believes that if the related disturbances continue until next year, there is still a risk that the Brent contract will rise further in recent months. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil fell below $100 per barrel on Tuesday as market expectations about the progress of US-Iran diplomacy and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz heated up.