5N Plus (TSX:VNP) Defense Supply Win Puts Its Undervalued Narrative Back In Focus
5N Plus (TSX:VNP) has been back on investors’ radar after a 3.45% share-price move on 18 September 2026, tied to new defense-related gallium arsenide supply work in the United States.
The new US defense work adds to a strong run for 5N Plus, with the CA$27.67 share price sitting on a year-to-date share price return of 53.72% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 76.92%. This comes even though the 90-day share price return declined 28.30%, suggesting recent momentum has cooled after a very strong multi-year total shareholder return of more than 7x.
Scan beyond 5N Plus and spot other specialist materials and infrastructure plays using our hand picked 40 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks aligned with long term defense and energy build outs.
5N Plus now trades well below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates after a sharp multi year run. Is that a genuine mispricing, or is the market correctly pricing in risk ahead of the next leg?
Most Popular Narrative: 38% Undervalued
On the most followed narrative, 5N Plus screens as undervalued, with a fair value of about CA$44.76 against the CA$27.67 last close. This puts the recent pullback in a very different light for anyone focused on long term contracts and specialty materials demand.
The expansion of the long-term supply agreement with First Solar positions 5N Plus as a critical U.S.-based supplier to the leading American solar panel manufacturer, aligning with accelerating clean energy adoption and North American supply chain security. This is set to drive sustained and step-wise increases in semiconductor compound volumes (33% in 2025-26, with another 25% lift in 2027-28) and support multi-year revenue and earnings growth, with minimal additional capital investment required.
See why 24 investors see 5N Plus as 38% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of CA$44.76 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, this hinges on 5N Plus avoiding setbacks, such as weaker demand from key customers like First Solar or higher regulatory costs that pressure profitability.
Find out about the key risks to this 5N Plus narrative.
Another View on 5N Plus Valuation
The first narrative leans on fair value and analyst targets that suggest 5N Plus is undervalued. A very different picture appears when looking at the P/E. The shares trade on 28.1x earnings, versus 7x for peers and a fair ratio of 15.5x. This points to a much richer price tag. Could the premium multiple unwind faster than any perceived discount to fair value?
See what the numbers say about this price in the valuation breakdown, and how that premium compares with peers and the fair ratio, in See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Mixed signals around 5N Plus can be useful if you lean into them rather than tune them out. Move quickly, review the underlying data, and weigh both sides of the debate by checking the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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