Wedbush hardware research: Six major fields are showing positive signs. Memory prices may rise by double digits in the fourth quarter

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson released a report after completing a two-week research trip saying that California's supply chain feedback was generally as positive as Asia, and that the six major fields of memory, hard disk drives (HDD), CCL/substrates, accelerators, computing, and optics all showed “green flags” (positive signals). The following are the key points of this survey.

Memory (NAND and DRAM)

The fourth quarter is likely to usher in another round of double-digit price increases. NAND and DRAM contract prices may rise 10% to 20%. Among them, NAND increases are at the low end of the range, and DRAM may rise by medium to high double digits. Wedbus expects the tense situation to continue until 2027, and emphasized that it is difficult to understand some industry analysts' predictions for next year's price decline. Furthermore, this pattern has also created opportunities for emerging solutions (such as P-type CSP architectures, Liquid's CXL, ScaleFlux, etc.). Looking ahead to 2028, there are more questions about supply and demand dynamics because of both new production capacity (starting with DRAM) and anticipated HBM optimizations. Memory vendors continue to believe this shift is due to supply constraints rather than optimal design. Big buyers, like investors, are struggling with how many variables will affect the balance of supply and demand and future prices.

HDD

Seagate Technology (STX.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) meetings are highly consistent with public comments: they want to control production capacity and cooperate with customers to ensure fair supply and reasonable prices. Wedbush continues to believe that with the 2027 and 2028 contract resets, the industry is expected to achieve more robust pricing, and buyers outside of large cloud vendors and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will see significant price increases.

CCL/Substrate

CCL supply (Elite, ITEQ, etc.) appears to be tightening further. Intel (INTC.US) once again emphasizes that PCBs are still an important bottleneck facing it, and even if Intel succeeds in increasing production capacity, shipments may be restricted. Wedbush noticed that the insufficient supply of E-glass and T-glass is still a bottleneck to increase shipments of the two types of products.

accelerators

While leaving Asia, Wedbush noticed that the supply chain expected a significant increase in construction spending over the next few months. The US trip did not change this judgment: Nvidia (NVDA.US) reiterated that it still believes the industry's capital expenditure will rise to $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2027; Cerebras (CBRS.US) is making strong progress in meeting the prerequisites needed to achieve and even surpass the goals; and the return on investment from new cloud vendors seems to be faster than the 2-3 years heard during the summer exchange.

calculation

Intel still believes that its products do not fully meet terminal needs, and a number of Taiwanese manufacturers are discussing that AMD (AMD.US) is increasing component/material supply requirements in 2027 to meet strong computing needs.

optics

Lightmatter provides a strong outlook, with highlights including NPO and Guide's anticipated first mass production shipments next year, and CPO and its plug-in solutions shipped in 2028. This roadmap is largely consistent with Wedbush's judgment: as the technology matures, the adoption of optical modules will continue to be strong.