OECD: The global economic outlook largely depends on a lasting solution to the Middle East conflict. Production and export blockages in the Gulf economies have intensified, and energy prices have recently risen again. Production capacity bottlenecks push up refining gross profit, further putting upward pressure on consumer prices and enterprise costs. Prices of some agricultural products have also risen markedly in recent months, partly due to extreme weather impacting supply. Continued changes in trade policies, including tariffs and export control measures, are increasing policy uncertainty and causing supply disruptions. The new bilateral tariffs implemented by the US in July are expected to increase the actual average US tariff level by about 1 percentage point. Long-term interest rates in many economies have risen to high levels for 15 years or more due to factors such as growing market concerns about long-term financial risks and massive debt issuance by artificial intelligence companies. Despite this, the overall financial environment remains supportive, the stock market remains high, and credit growth has improved.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: The global economic outlook largely depends on a lasting solution to the Middle East conflict. Production and export blockages in the Gulf economies have intensified, and energy prices have recently risen again. Production capacity bottlenecks push up refining gross profit, further putting upward pressure on consumer prices and enterprise costs. Prices of some agricultural products have also risen markedly in recent months, partly due to extreme weather impacting supply. Continued changes in trade policies, including tariffs and export control measures, are increasing policy uncertainty and causing supply disruptions. The new bilateral tariffs implemented by the US in July are expected to increase the actual average US tariff level by about 1 percentage point. Long-term interest rates in many economies have risen to high levels for 15 years or more due to factors such as growing market concerns about long-term financial risks and massive debt issuance by artificial intelligence companies. Despite this, the overall financial environment remains supportive, the stock market remains high, and credit growth has improved.