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    Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Could Be A Bargain After AI Expansion

    Simply Wall St·09/23/2026 09:27:30
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    NVIDIA has delivered huge returns in recent years, and with the stock most recently closing at US$228.87 the basic question is whether that price is still grounded in the cash it can generate over time.

    • Over the past 5 years the share price has risen by a very large amount, which puts a lot of weight on assumptions about how much free cash the business can produce in the future.
    • Fresh partnerships across autonomous trucks, data centers and AI software, along with NVIDIA's role in financing parts of the AI ecosystem, can feed expectations for future cash flows but also shape how much capital the company needs to commit and when those returns arrive.
    • If you'd rather focus on earnings, this one's for you. See what NVIDIA's 28.7x P/E says about the price.

    The issue now is whether NVIDIA's current share price is consistent with the intrinsic value suggested by its projected cash flows under a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) view.

    If you are weighing whether NVIDIA's US$228.87 share price still lines up with its cash flows, it can help to compare that story with a broader set of AI infrastructure plays using 86 AI infrastructure stocks

    Does NVIDIA Look Undervalued on Cash Flow?

    The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model here is built on NVIDIA’s ability to turn AI demand into future free cash generation. Latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about $126.7b, so the starting point is already very large rather than a turnaround from losses. The projections assume that this cash generation keeps growing over time rather than flattening or shrinking, with sizeable forecast free cash flows stretching out into the next decade.

    Because the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) output puts NVIDIA’s implied intrinsic worth meaningfully above the current US$228.87 share price, the assumptions around that growth really matter. Recent framing of NVIDIA as a kind of “bank of AI” that helps fund partners like Anthropic and other AI players helps explain why the model leans on sizeable future cash flows, and why the market still prices in a premium story even if the shares screen below DCF value. To see how that gap looks in detail, and how sensitive it is to different cash flow paths, you can run your own numbers against this setup. Find out what NVIDIA could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

    The NVIDIA Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

    NVIDIA’s Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where that valuation puzzle leaves off by spelling out which paths for growth, margins and earnings would need to play out for the shares to be worth materially more or less than today’s price on the Community page. Rather than a single multiple or model output, each narrative lays out the assumptions behind its view of fair value so you can compare those expectations with NVIDIA's actual results as they arrive over time.

    Community views on NVIDIA are sharply split, with one camp seeing a still underappreciated AI cash engine and the other worried the legend has already been fully priced in.

    Bull case: 33% undervalued

    "Nvidia will hit $400b annual revenue in 5 years time, ~90% of revenue will come from data centre customers, this equates to $90b / quarter..."

    Discover why this Narrative puts NVIDIA at 33% undervalued.

    Bear case: 120% overvalued

    "The extraordinary surge of GPU demand was front-loaded by the initial AI gold rush, once hyperscalers build capacity, incremental growth in training may slow sharply..."

    Explore why this Narrative puts NVIDIA at 120% overvalued.

    Before acting on NVIDIA's valuation, there is one more pillar to inspect

    Price, cash flows and narratives are only part of the picture, because the people steering NVIDIA and the way they are rewarded can heavily influence how those scenarios play out. See who runs NVIDIA and how they are paid.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.