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    Does CHIPS Act Funding Change The Bull Case For Rigetti Computing Stock (RGTI)?

    Simply Wall St·09/23/2026 10:20:31
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    • Rigetti Computing recently signed an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce that could provide up to US$100 million in CHIPS Act funding to accelerate its quantum R&D roadmap, subject to performance milestones and likely future share issuance.
    • The prospective CHIPS support strengthens Rigetti Computing’s liquidity position for long lead quantum projects. It also highlights how dependent the business remains on external capital and government programs while commercial revenue and practical quantum advantage are still developing.
    • This article examines how Rigetti Computing’s investment narrative is reshaped by the potential US$100 million CHIPS Act funding agreement.

    Scan for other early stage quantum and AI hardware plays that are benefiting from similar government tailwinds by reviewing our curated list of 25 quantum computing stocks.

    Rigetti Computing Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Rigetti Computing, you need to believe that today’s heavy losses and small revenue base eventually translate into meaningful demand for its superconducting quantum systems and services. The potential US$100 million CHIPS Act package helps extend the runway for that bet and supports the long lead roadmap, but it does not change how early the commercial story still is.

    The most important near term catalyst remains execution on the Ankaa and Novera product roadmaps and converting government work into larger, repeatable deployments. The biggest current risk is the combination of high operating losses against US$1.9 million in recent quarterly revenue and continued dependence on external funding, which the CHIPS structure does not solve on its own.

    The CHIPS funding agreement intersects directly with Rigetti Computing’s earlier comments about possibly needing hundreds of millions of dollars for a future quantum fabrication facility. Management had already been weighing whether to rely on external foundries or invest in its own fab, a choice that could sharply affect cash burn and balance sheet risk.

    Potential CHIPS support gives the business another tool to fund R&D and manufacturing capacity without relying solely on higher risk borrowing or repeated equity raises. It does not remove execution risk around building higher fidelity, larger qubit systems or address margin pressure from lower margin contracts, but it could influence the timing and scale of how aggressively Rigetti moves on its hardware and fab plans.

    Rigetti Computing’s current analyst narrative points to US$170.0 million in revenue and US$28.7 million in earnings by 2029, built on a projected 157.0% yearly revenue growth rate and an earnings swing of about US$254 million from a loss of US$225.7 million today.

    Uncover why Rigetti Computing's fair value indicates a 79% potential upside to its current price that could narrow quickly.

    NasdaqCM:RGTI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NasdaqCM:RGTI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    One alternate angle on Rigetti Computing focuses on funding risk around that potential US$100 million CHIPS package. The most cautious analysts were already assuming much slower progress, with revenue only reaching about US$83.8 million and earnings of US$16.6 million by 2029. That is a far more sober path. These views all predate the CHIPS news, so opinions and forecasts may evolve.

    Explore 11 other Rigetti Computing fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 98% downside from the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so consider your own independent analysis.

    Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Rigetti Computing?

    If the Rigetti Computing story has you thinking about position sizing and diversification, it can help to scan a broader set of opportunities that fit your own risk and income preferences. The Simply Wall St Screener is built for exactly that, letting you filter for the traits that matter most to you in a few clicks.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.