UBS maintains Apple's (AAPL.US) “neutral” rating: iPhone 18 demand has improved marginally, but China is still the “biggest weakness”
The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS said that Apple's (AAPL.US) iPhone 18 demand showed marginal signs of improvement, although China is still the main weak point in the company's latest supply chain and waiting time data. The agency maintains a “neutral” rating for Apple, with a target price of $296.
UBS Evidence Lab found that the average waiting time for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max increased by about three and two days, respectively, compared to the previous week.
The year-on-year decline in waiting times has also narrowed to about a day, indicating that demand outside of China is now close to flat compared to last year. However, UBS said that most of the weakness in the data still comes from China.
UBS believes demand outside of China is stabilizing
After a new iPhone is released, wait time is often used as an early indicator of how much demand is relative to availability. Longer delivery times may indicate stronger orders, tighter supply, or both; while shorter wait times may suggest weak demand. An important change for UBS is that the gap compared to last year is narrowing. According to TheFly, the agency still doesn't think there will be a significant acceleration in demand, but the latest readings show that the early picture outside of China is no longer that weak.
The iPhone 18 Pro is starting the sales cycle
Apple released the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max on September 9, pre-orders began on September 12, and went on sale in more than 65 countries and regions, including China and the US, starting September 18. The new Pro model is equipped with an Apple A20 Pro chip, a 48-megapixel variable-aperture main camera, upgraded battery performance, and Siri artificial intelligence features based on iOS 27. Apple said Pro Max brought the iPhone “the biggest increase in battery life” in history.
This means that UBS's readings only capture the earliest stages of publication. Waiting times and channel data for the next few weeks are critical to determining whether initial improvements can continue.
Evercore is optimistic about stronger switching cycles
Analysts' views on Apple stock are still divided. UBS believes there is room for the stock to decline, and Evercore ISI raised Apple's price target from $365 to $380 last week while maintaining an “outperforming market” rating. According to the agency's annual survey of nearly 4,000 consumers, the current iPhone cycle performance may be better than expected. Evercore said the shipping demand behind the launch of the new model is likely to perform well, and believes “particularly critically” that pricing could increase by more than 20%.
As a result, the two reports point to different signals: UBS focuses on real-time delivery and wait time data — which is still weak in China; while Evercore believes there is substantial room for improvement in shipping volume and pricing, based on consumers' willingness to buy.
China's weakening will be a turning point since Apple's last quarter
The reason the early data for the iPhone 18 is worth watching is that Apple's recent reporting quarter was strong in China. In the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Q3), Apple's revenue in Greater China increased from US$15.37 billion in the same period last year to US$18.82 billion, an increase of about 22.4%; overall iPhone revenue rose from US$44.58 billion to US$54.25 billion, an increase of about 21.7% year-on-year. Apple also set a record for the company's revenue and iPhone revenue for the June quarter. Total sales increased 16% year over year to US$109.4 billion; the company recorded double-digit revenue growth in the iPhone, Mac and service businesses, as well as in all regions.
The question now is whether the iPhone 18 can continue this trend into the new product cycle. UBS saw early improvements, but remains cautious, particularly in the Chinese market; Evercore believes that the newly released product may support a better-than-expected switching cycle.