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    Is Rubrik (RBRK) Fully Valued Following Its New AI Security Launches?

    Simply Wall St·09/23/2026 18:39:19
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    Rubrik (RBRK) just put AI-driven security at center stage by unveiling Rubrik MCP and Rubrik Code Guardian to give corporate AI agents controlled access to data and to probe software for complex vulnerabilities.

    Recent trading shows that investors have been leaning into this AI security story, with Rubrik’s share price delivering a 90-day share price return of 50.12% and a year-to-date share price return of 48.23%. The 1-year total shareholder return sits at 37.33%.

    Scan the wider AI security space by comparing Rubrik with a curated set of 36 AI small caps that could be building similar momentum around data protection and automation.

    After a 90 day surge and with Rubrik now trading near the lower end of published fair value estimates, is the recent move already pricing in most of that AI security story or still leaving a material gap on the table?

    Most Popular Narrative: 17% Overvalued

    Rubrik last closed at $111.87 while the most widely followed narrative anchors fair value at $95.50, so the market is already paying a premium that rests heavily on the durability of the cyber resilience story.

    Guidance for fiscal 2027 is described as ahead of prior estimates and raised by more than the Q1 beat on several metrics. Bullish analysts view this as reinforcing Rubrik's long term thesis around durable growth, improving margins, and a path to stronger free cash flow.

    See why 65 investors see Rubrik as 17% overvalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $95.50 (OVERVALUED)

    Still, Rubrik’s dependence on aggressive AI and cloud adoption, along with rising competition in cyber resilience, could pressure both its growth narrative and valuation assumptions.

    Find out about the key risks to this Rubrik narrative.

    Another View: Rubrik Through A Cash Flow Lens

    Rubrik screens as expensive on traditional P/S ratios, yet our DCF model points to a different angle. At $111.87, the shares sit modestly below an estimated future cash flow value of $115.69, which frames the current AI security enthusiasm as a smaller premium than headline multiples suggest. Does that cash flow view feel more convincing than the narrative around high sales multiples for you?

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    RBRK Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026
    RBRK Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026

    Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Rubrik for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 29 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

    Next Steps

    Sentiment around Rubrik is split, with strong AI enthusiasm on one side and pointed concerns on the other. Move quickly, review the data and form your own stance by weighing up 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

    Looking For More Ideas Beyond Rubrik?

    If you stop with Rubrik, you risk missing other opportunities that fit your style. Put the Simply Wall Street Screener to work and widen your watchlist.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.