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    Curtiss Wright (CW) Stock Could Be 12% Overvalued Despite $700 Million Buyback

    Simply Wall St·09/23/2026 22:26:52
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    Curtiss-Wright has had a powerful multi year run and more recently a pullback, which puts a spotlight on whether the current share price lines up with the cash the business is expected to generate. With the stock now around US$545 and sentiment shaped by both long term gains and fresh headlines, the real question is what its cash flows say about that price tag.

    • Over the past 5 years the Curtiss-Wright share price has risen about 333%, so a lot of value is now riding on how its future cash streams stack up against that move.
    • Recent attention on ruggedized embedded systems and a larger share repurchase authorization may support expectations for durable defense related cash flows and a more concentrated equity base over time.
    • What if you looked at Curtiss-Wright through its earnings instead? See what Curtiss-Wright's 37.2x P/E says about the price.

    The stock's next move may depend on whether Curtiss-Wright's current valuation is fully backed by the cash flows implied by a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) view.

    If you want a broader watchlist while you assess Curtiss-Wright's cash flows, a focused screen of 30 high quality undervalued stocks is a useful second starting point for research.

    Does Curtiss-Wright Look Pricey on Cash Flow?

    The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model here is built around Curtiss-Wright’s ability to keep turning operating surplus into cash for shareholders. Latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about $642.7 million, and the projection set assumes that this stream grows over time rather than shrinks, with analysts and internal estimates pointing to higher annual cash generation into the 2030s. With the share price currently at $545.15, the DCF outcome points to an estimated intrinsic value that is modestly below where the stock trades today.

    The new $700 million share repurchase authorization, including the planned $100 million buyback through 2026, helps explain why investors may be comfortable paying a premium to the cash flow model, since fewer shares can lift per share cash figures even if total dollars stay in the same ballpark. For anyone weighing whether the DCF assumptions and Curtiss-Wright’s ruggedized embedded systems exposure justify that gap, the detailed calculation is worth a closer look. Find out what Curtiss-Wright could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

    The Curtiss-Wright Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

    Narratives for Curtiss-Wright pick up where the DCF question leaves off and explain what would need to happen to its growth, margins and earnings for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today’s price. They are available on Simply Wall St’s Community page. Each scenario ties a fair value estimate to a specific mix of potential catalysts and risks so you can track which storyline is actually unfolding over time.

    One of the top community narratives on Curtiss-Wright: 31% undervalued

    "Focus on advanced technologies, disciplined capital allocation, and expanded shareholder returns positions the company for profitable growth and potential market undervaluation..."

    Discover why this Narrative puts Curtiss-Wright at 31% undervalued.

    Curtiss-Wright’s valuation still hinges on one unresolved factor

    Cash flows and share repurchases tell only part of the Curtiss-Wright story. The people deciding how to allocate that money, and the way their pay is structured, can tilt outcomes for years. See who runs Curtiss-Wright and how they are paid.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.