Is Vera Therapeutics (VERA) Cheap After TRUTAKNA Met All ORIGIN 3 Endpoints?

Vera Therapeutics (VERA) is back in focus after reporting that TRUTAKNA met all prespecified endpoints in the final efficacy analysis of the ORIGIN 3 trial in adults with primary IgA nephropathy.

The latest ORIGIN 3 update lands after a choppy stretch for Vera Therapeutics, with the share price down 8.85% over one day and 22.16% over 90 days. However, a 1-year total shareholder return of 22.59% and roughly 3.4x over three years shows longer-term holders have still seen strong gains even as recent momentum has cooled.

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Vera Therapeutics just delivered strong ORIGIN 3 data, yet the share price has cooled in recent months. Is this the moment to step in, or does it make more sense to wait for a cheaper entry before the numbers do the talking?

Most Popular Narrative: 67% Undervalued

At a last close of $33.05 against a widely followed fair value view of $100, the current pricing for Vera Therapeutics reflects a sharp gap between what the market is paying and what optimistic analysts think TRUTAKNA and the broader pipeline could justify.

The finalized 104 week ORIGIN 3 data showing a 5.0 mL per year treatment delta in eGFR slope and a 76% risk reduction on a composite kidney endpoint positions TRUTAKNA as a candidate for earlier line use in IgA nephropathy and potentially other autoimmune kidney conditions. This could expand the eligible patient pool and influence long term revenue growth from the B cell modulator franchise.

See why 0 investors see Vera Therapeutics as 67% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $100 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the bullish Vera Therapeutics story hinges on TRUTAKNA actually converting into prescriptions at its roughly US$425,000 price and on physicians not favoring rival IgA nephropathy options.

Find out about the key risks to this Vera Therapeutics narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed messages in the Vera Therapeutics story so far. Consider taking a closer look while the data and sentiment are fresh and weigh both sides for yourself with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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