Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) Faces A Lockup Expiry, Where Does Fair Value Sit?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) hits another lockup milestone as roughly 328 million shares become eligible for sale. This shift could reshape trading dynamics and liquidity for existing shareholders.
The latest lockup expiry lands as Space Exploration Technologies’ share price sits at US$148.03, with the stock down 0.2% on a 1 day share price return and 4.4% over the past week, yet still showing a 7.3% 30 day share price gain after a softer year to date share price return of 8.0%. This suggests short term momentum has cooled just as investors weigh new supply, insider sales and upcoming catalysts like the next Starship test flight.
Scan how Space Exploration Technologies fits into the wider opportunity by comparing it with 84 AI infrastructure stocks that is powering the same AI and data center build out story.
Space Exploration Technologies now trades at US$148.03 while the average analyst target sits up near US$222.42. With that kind of gap and fresh supply hitting the market, the question is where fair value really lands for SPCX.
Most Popular Narrative: 32080% Overvalued
The most followed valuation narrative for Space Exploration Technologies pegs fair value at just $0.46 a share using a 30% discount rate, which sits far below the latest $148.03 close and frames the current price as extremely rich.
SpaceX is one of the most important engineering companies in the world, but from a valuation standpoint, it still behaves like a capital intensive industrial business with modest margins and high execution risk. With a 30% discount rate to reflect the lack of current profitability, the fair value estimate lands at US$0.87 per share in 2026.
See why 93 investors see Space Exploration Technologies as 32080% overvalued.
Result: Fair Value of $0.46 (OVERVALUED)
Still, if Space Exploration Technologies wins larger government contracts or if Starlink economics improve faster than expected, this harsh valuation narrative could weaken quickly.
Find out about the key risks to this Space Exploration Technologies narrative.
Next Steps
Sentiment on Space Exploration Technologies is clearly split, so do not wait for consensus to form before you review the numbers yourself and weigh both sides of the story. To see the balance of upside potential and downside risk set out in one place, start with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
Hunting For More Ideas Beyond Space Exploration Technologies?
If you are weighing what to do with Space Exploration Technologies, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not reacting late when the next opportunity surfaces.
- Target potential mispricings by scanning companies that combine strong fundamentals with appealing valuations using the 30 high quality undervalued stocks.
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- Focus on durability first by filtering for companies with robust finances and cleaner balance sheets via the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (23 results).
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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