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    Is Asplundh Win Altering The Investment Case For Samsara (IOT)?

    Simply Wall St·09/27/2026 05:20:42
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    • Samsara Inc. recently announced that Asplundh selected its connected operations platform across tens of thousands of North American vehicles and assets, using AI Dash Cams, gateways, and asset tags to improve safety, utilization, and maintenance.
    • The launch of Samsara MCP, which lets customers feed live operational data into third party AI assistants and applications without custom builds, points to broader workflow usage across HR, finance, and procurement.
    • The focus now turns to how Samsara's AI data integration initiative with MCP could influence the longer term investment narrative around the business.
    Spot 85 AI infrastructure stocks that, like Samsara’s platform, are wired into real-world operations and could benefit as more fleets, grids, and factories plug operational data into AI workflows.

    Samsara Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Samsara, you need to believe that connecting physical operations to software and AI can keep pulling in large fleets and industrial customers, and that these clients will keep layering on more products over time. The Asplundh rollout supports that thesis but does not change the core short term swing factor: how consistently Samsara converts big pipeline deals into recurring contracts.

    The biggest risk is still long, complex enterprise sales cycles, especially with sectors that adopt technology slowly. MCP and large deployments raise expectations for future AI monetization, so any sign that usage is high but paid adoption lags could quickly become the focus for investors watching earnings quality rather than headline growth.

    The MCP announcement looks most relevant here because it turns Samsara’s operational footprint, including customers like Asplundh, into data that can flow into third party AI tools such as Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Cursor. That makes the platform story less about just telematics and more about being an operational data layer that other software depends on.

    For catalysts, investors are likely to watch how MCP usage correlates with additional ARR, especially as more customers use it for HR, finance and procurement workflows. The operational risk is straightforward: if AI tools remain mostly read only helpers, without clear, paid upsell paths and strong adoption beyond early users, the gap between AI promise and realized revenue could become a pressure point.

    Samsara's analyst narrative points to forecast revenue of US$3.0b and expected earnings of US$304.4m by 2029. This setup assumes yearly revenue growth of 19.7% and an earnings increase of about 5x from current earnings of US$57.5m.

    Discover how Samsara's fair value indicates a 19% potential upside to its current price. This could close quickly if investor enthusiasm builds.

    NYSE:IOT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:IOT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    One alternate view centers on competition risk. On this read, Samsara could struggle if automakers and rivals pull customers onto their own platforms. The most cautious analysts were only modeling revenue growth of 17.8% a year and earnings of US$265.4m by 2029. As a result, the Asplundh and MCP news may eventually shift expectations.

    Explore 7 other Samsara fair value estimates, including one that suggests a potential 13% downside from the current price.

    Form Your Own Verdict

    Don't just follow the ticker. Dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    Looking for more Samsara style investment ideas?

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.