Oura's IPO surpassed by four times: is the $15 billion market capitalization a bubble or a boon?

According to Woofun AI, the initial public offering (IPO) of wearable device company Oura has experienced market frenzy, with orders reaching 4 times the number of shares available for sale. The pricing work carried out on Tuesday was approaching the upper limit of the pre-set range due to strong demand. This phenomenon was particularly surprising in the context of the recent scarcity of multi-billion dollar listed projects, triggering an in-depth examination of the reality of the drivers.

The offering was led by an underwriting group composed of 5 banks including Goldman Sachs (GS.US) and Morgan Stanley (MS.US), involving 50 million shares, and the pricing range was $40 to $44. If calculated at the upper limit, Oura's market value would reach $141 billion; Bloomberg expects it to be more than $15 billion after full dilution, while the company's own target valuation is $15.62 billion to pave the way for the fall listing (see https://t.co/BErPj3ZV4W for details).

Notably, the overall listing environment was sluggish in 2026, Kraken's parent company postponed its listing to 2027, and Holtec Nuclear and Bamboo Insurance Services also abandoned plans due to poor market conditions. Following Jersey Mike's in July, Oura is poised to become another company with more than $1 billion in funding. Bill Dudley, the former governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, warned that the stock market is already in a bubble. This situation where supply is in short supply is beneficial to well-advertised companies.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the current high valuation reflects more the mismatch between supply and demand due to lack of market liquidity, rather than investors' absolute confidence in fundamentals.

Analyzing financial fundamentals in depth, Oura's revenue grew 74% to $1.21 billion in nine months, doubled its paid membership to 5 million, and its net revenue jumped from $1.6 million to $60.8 million.

However, the company still recorded a loss attributable to common shareholders of $924.3 million, mainly due to preferred share repurchases rather than core operations. The total value of this IPO may be as high as $2.2 billion, but the structure has a significant dilution effect: 73% are second-hand shares sold by existing shareholders, and only 27% are new company shares.

This means that the scale of capital raised is not directly equivalent to the company's additional capital or real value growth, and investors need to be wary of the long-term effects of equity dilution.

The revenue structure further revealed the core of the valuation dispute: bracelet hardware sales contributed $974 million, while subscription services contributed only $240.5 million. This hardware-based revenue model is closer to traditional manufacturers, yet it enjoys valuation premiums from software companies. Competitor Whoop previously completed financing of $575 million at a valuation of $10.1 billion, and also faced similar questions. Although a four-fold oversubscription can guide underwriters to distribute orders, it cannot predict post-listing performance. Ultimately, consumers will vote with real money to decide whether the bracelet subscription service is worth its high data premium. This is the only standard for testing its true value.