The recent correction in oil prices mainly reflects the market's expectations for an easing of the geographical situation. Market analysts believe that the diplomatic window that emerged during the United Nations General Assembly created conditions for the US and Iran to resume negotiations. Market concerns about the escalation of the conflict have cooled down, driving back the geographical risk premium in the early stages. Industry analysis also pointed out that expectations of an increase in Saudi crude oil exports, diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran, and rising US crude oil inventories have all mitigated supply concerns. Marginal changes in physical supply are just as important. Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline was restarted on September 22, but initial delivery volume was limited, and full restoration will take time. The pipeline connects to Yanbu Port in the Red Sea and is an important channel for Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz to export crude oil. However, the resumption of pipeline operation does not mean an immediate return to normal crude oil supply. From pipeline transportation and port loading to final delivery to the refinery, every step takes time; in addition, whether tankers are willing to pass and whether insurance arrangements can be implemented will also affect the speed at which new supply reaches the consumer market. Therefore, evaluating the changing trend of geographical premiums in the fourth quarter requires more attention to physical flow data such as continuous loading volume, transportation channel utilization, and refinery arrival. Diplomatic news will certainly change market expectations in the short term, but actual changes in physical flow are the key factors that determine market fundamentals.

The recent correction in oil prices mainly reflects the market's expectations for an easing of the geographical situation. Market analysts believe that the diplomatic window that emerged during the United Nations General Assembly created conditions for the US and Iran to resume negotiations. Market concerns about the escalation of the conflict have cooled down, driving back the geographical risk premium in the early stages. Industry analysis also pointed out that expectations of an increase in Saudi crude oil exports, diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran, and rising US crude oil inventories have all mitigated supply concerns. Marginal changes in physical supply are just as important. Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline was restarted on September 22, but initial delivery volume was limited, and full restoration will take time. The pipeline connects to Yanbu Port in the Red Sea and is an important channel for Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz to export crude oil. However, the resumption of pipeline operation does not mean an immediate return to normal crude oil supply. From pipeline transportation and port loading to final delivery to the refinery, every step takes time; in addition, whether tankers are willing to pass and whether insurance arrangements can be implemented will also affect the speed at which new supply reaches the consumer market. Therefore, evaluating the changing trend of geographical premiums in the fourth quarter requires more attention to physical flow data such as continuous loading volume, transportation channel utilization, and refinery arrival. Diplomatic news will certainly change market expectations in the short term, but actual changes in physical flow are the key factors that determine market fundamentals.