Hong Kong Trade Development Council: Demand for AI has risen rapidly, and Hong Kong's export growth forecast for this year is 42% to 47%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Hong Kong Trade Development Council has drastically adjusted its forecast for trade prospects and raised Hong Kong's 2026 commodity export growth forecast to 42% to 47%, mainly because global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) related technology is higher than expected.

Meanwhile, the newly released HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the third quarter of 2026 shows that despite continued geopolitical uncertainty, the confidence of Hong Kong exporters remains generally positive. The “Current Situation Index” recorded 51.8, while the “Expectations Index” was 51.3. Both indices were above the good low dividing line of 50.

Hong Kong Trade Development Council Research Director Pang Ming said that Hong Kong recorded strong export growth this year, mainly driven by a rapid rise in global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure. Market demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronic products increased beyond expectations, bringing significant support to Hong Kong's exports.

Electronic products continued to be the main driving force for export growth. They accounted for about 80% of Hong Kong's total exports in the first 8 months of 2026. During this period, electronics exports increased by 52.8% year on year, significantly exceeding overall exports. Major export markets include mainland China, ASEAN and the US, reflecting strong demand in the global technology supply chain.

Zhao Yongchu, Deputy Director of Research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, said that the export performance of various traditional electronic components continues to be strong. Regional production networks covering China and ASEAN economies are still very active, driving booming trade within Asia. At the same time, the export performance of many traditional industries has remained generally stable, reflecting the fact that overseas demand still exists and consumption remains resilient in major markets.

The ASEAN region continues to be one of Hong Kong's most growing export markets, and exporters' confidence in the ASEAN and Chinese markets remains firm and positive. The mainland's high-tech manufacturing industry continues to expand, further supporting demand for electronic components and related intermediate products.

Hong Kong's exports to the US are still showing strong resilience, with exports to the US rising 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026. Pang Yi said that although the latest “Section 301” tariff measures have brought a certain degree of uncertainty to enterprises, the direct impact on Hong Kong's exports is expected to be limited. A large part of Hong Kong's exports to the US is exempted from tariffs, particularly technology and electronic products.

Research by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council shows that Hong Kong's exports are increasingly concentrated on high-value and technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits, computer components and advanced telecommunications equipment. These products are gradually replacing traditional, less valuable commodities, and have become an important driving force for export growth. Zhao Yongchu pointed out that the products currently handled in Hong Kong are increasingly small in size but extremely valuable. These products are often combined with air freight services to overseas markets, as well as land transportation connecting Hong Kong and China's manufacturing centers. This transformation reflects the gradual development of Hong Kong from a traditional trade gateway to a high-value-added international trade and supply chain management center.

Looking ahead, the HKTDC expects Hong Kong's exports to maintain a steady growth momentum for the rest of 2026, benefiting from the resilience of global demand for technology products and support from manufacturing and trade activities in other major markets such as China and ASEAN.