Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report that the peak of US bond interest rates may not have been seen yet; we are focusing on the possibility of a second acceleration in the US economy. From the perspective of economic growth, interest rates on US bonds are still at the stage of catching up with the economic growth rate. The nominal GDP growth rate of the US reached 6.5% in Q2, and the Q3 reading is probably higher. In the context of the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from QE, the difference between US bond interest rates and the nominal GDP growth rate is still narrowing. From the perspective of common monetary policy rules, the Federal Reserve may still need to raise interest rates 2-4 times, but these rules probably underestimate neutral interest rates, because the US economy shows obvious “jobless growth,” economic growth has not been accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate, and the job market's tolerance for interest rates is also rising.

Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report that the peak of US bond interest rates may not have been seen yet; we are focusing on the possibility of a second acceleration in the US economy. From the perspective of economic growth, interest rates on US bonds are still at the stage of catching up with the economic growth rate. The nominal GDP growth rate of the US reached 6.5% in Q2, and the Q3 reading is probably higher. In the context of the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from QE, the difference between US bond interest rates and the nominal GDP growth rate is still narrowing. From the perspective of common monetary policy rules, the Federal Reserve may still need to raise interest rates 2-4 times, but these rules probably underestimate neutral interest rates, because the US economy shows obvious “jobless growth,” economic growth has not been accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate, and the job market's tolerance for interest rates is also rising.