Why Predictions Of A 2026 Food Shortage Puts The Spotlight On Fertilizer

According to the United Nations World Food Programme and the Global Report on Food Crises, 266 million people already face crisis-level hunger or worse.

And many believe this could continue.

Why are some predicting a 2026 food shortage?

Geopolitical conflict and extreme weather are two major pressures on global food production, with both capable of disrupting crops, supply chains and the availability of agricultural inputs.

With conflicts continuing and extreme weather remaining an ongoing challenge for farmers, these pressures are unlikely to disappear quickly. That leaves an important question for global food security: what can help farmers maintain crop yields when growing conditions and agricultural supply chains become more difficult?

One important part of the answer is ensuring farmers have reliable access to the fertilizers they need to produce food.

Why are people predicting a food shortage in 2026?

In May, the Director-General of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Qu Dongyu, advised the room in a meeting in Italy:

“We meet at a moment of profound strain. This is not only a geopolitical crisis, but also a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system.”

His point was that fertilizer scarcity caused by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to lower crop yields and tighter food supplies in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. The connection is relatively straightforward: if farmers cannot access the nutrients their crops need, or if fertilizer becomes too expensive to apply, yields can come under pressure. That can ultimately mean less food being produced and higher prices for consumers.

This echoes a recent report from financial giant J.P. Morgan, which identified the Iranian conflict as a key risk to global fertilizer supply, as well as an upcoming El Niño weather system adding another layer of weather stress on crops at the exact time fertilizer supply, which is a way of protecting crops from weather, tightens.

Why potash could become increasingly important

There are three core nutrients supplied through fertilizers: nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium.

Each plays a different role in helping crops grow and produce yields.

Nitrogen builds the plant, phosphorus supports root development and reproduction, while potassium helps regulate water movement, nutrient transport and plant functions associated with stress tolerance.

A farmer can’t simply substitute one nutrient for another. Maintaining reliable access to all three is critical to global food supply.

And that is the challenge.

Nitrogen fertilizer has been particularly exposed to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, while geopolitical tensions have also reshaped global trade in potash. This has made the supply of the core components of each type of fertilizer a critical focus for many countries.

For potash, in particular, its importance might go beyond conflict-driven supply disruptions as farmers also look to protect yields from environmental stress.

That could become particularly relevant with another potential source of pressure emerging: El Niño. While the effects vary by region, El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across agricultural areas, increasing the risk of challenging growing conditions.

Potassium cannot prevent drought or extreme weather. However, adequate potassium nutrition can help plants regulate water and maintain important physiological functions during environmental stress.

For farmers trying to maintain yields when growing conditions become less predictable, that makes potassium an important part of the broader agricultural toolkit.

And for investors, it raises another question: where will the world get the additional potash it needs if reliable fertilizer supply becomes increasingly important to global food production?

An emerging potash stock hoping to add to supply

One company looking to bring additional potash supply is emerging Canadian potash exploration company, Buffalo Potash (TSXV:BUFF).

According to a narrative published on the Simply Wall St community, the community author discusses how Buffalo Potash is trying to mine potash without building a billion-dollar mine using an innovative approach that could extract the mineral at a fraction of what it would usually cost.

It also highlights that a study of the location of its Disley mine, which is next to two of the largest potash-producing mines in the world, points to a net present value that is significantly larger than its current market cap, with production expected in early 2027 potentially acting as a key catalyst for the company’s success.

Disclaimer

This article was written independently by the author, without issuer input or approval. Buffalo Potash Corp. has a marketing services agreement with Simply Wall St. Details on compensation and other important information can be found in the disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this narrative.

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Simply Wall St analyst Andrew Legget and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.