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    ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Could Be 15% Undervalued After Vietnam Supply Deal

    Simply Wall St·09/29/2026 23:19:26
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    ExxonMobil Holdings has powered through the last few years with a strong share price run, and that kind of track record naturally puts the focus on whether the current valuation is backed by the cash the business can generate. With fresh headlines around oil markets, new supply deals and long term projects, the question now is how comfortably the stock price lines up with the value implied by its future cash flows.

    • ExxonMobil Holdings has returned 212.0% over the past 5 years, which makes the link between its share price and the cash it can produce especially important for anyone considering the stock today.
    • Recent agreements to supply crude to Vietnam's Dung Quat Refinery and pursue opportunities in areas like liquefied natural gas and chemical recycling can influence expectations for long term cash generation and the timing of future investment needs.
    • If you'd rather focus on earnings, this one's for you. See what ExxonMobil Holdings's 20.3x P/E says about the price.

    The issue now is whether ExxonMobil Holdings' current share price is justified by the intrinsic value suggested by its Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate based on those cash flows.

    You can test the same question you are asking of ExxonMobil Holdings against a ready made list of 31 high quality undervalued stocks.

    Is ExxonMobil Holdings a Bargain on Cash Flow?

    The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach here weighs the cash ExxonMobil Holdings can return to shareholders against today’s $161.35 share price. Latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about $32.8b in dollar terms, and the model then assumes a period of growing cash flows that gradually cools into more modest levels over the following decade.

    Projected free cash flow into the early 2030s trends lower than the near term peak, which fits a mature energy group that already generates substantial cash rather than one built on outsized expansion bets. The DCF estimate comes out modestly above where ExxonMobil Holdings trades today, which suggests the market is not giving full weight to those projected cash flows. Because the recent framework deal to supply Vietnam’s Dung Quat Refinery and explore liquefied natural gas and chemical recycling adds potential long term projects on top of this cash profile, the current gap between the DCF value and the $161.35 price is worth a closer look. Find out what ExxonMobil Holdings could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

    The ExxonMobil Holdings Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

    Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where that cash flow puzzle for ExxonMobil Holdings' valuation leaves off and explain what kind of future in terms of growth, margins and earnings would need to occur for the stock to be worth meaningfully more or less than today’s price on the Community page. Each narrative treats fair value as a thesis about ExxonMobil Holdings' business that can be tracked over time, rather than a one off snapshot.

    One of the top community narratives on ExxonMobil Holdings: 6% undervalued

    "The main factor that needs to work in the company’s favor is ongoing execution on high return projects such as Permian and Guyana..."

    Discover why this Narrative puts ExxonMobil Holdings at 6% undervalued.

    One more ExxonMobil Holdings check that belongs beside the cash flow math

    Cash projections tell you what ExxonMobil Holdings might produce, but the people steering those projects and how their pay is structured can heavily influence what actually gets delivered to you as a shareholder. See who runs ExxonMobil Holdings and how they are paid.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.