The US ADP employment increase of 90,000 in September far exceeded expectations, and the non-farm payrolls report will face critical tests

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to data released by ADP Research on Wednesday, the number of people employed in the private sector in the US increased by 90,000 in September, the biggest increase in three months and higher than market expectations, indicating that after experiencing a brief slowdown, the labor market accelerated again, further easing market concerns about economic cooling.

Specifically, 90,000 new jobs were added in September, far exceeding the 36,000 jobs in August after the downgrade. In terms of market expectations, the median estimate by market research economists was 75,000, and the Dow Jones consensus forecast was 68,000. The actual data clearly won. The ADP report is based on salary data covering more than 26 million US private sector employees and is seen as an important prelude to Friday's non-farm payroll report.

Looking at the structure of the industry, employment growth is characterized by broad but fragmented characteristics. Education and health services contributed the most, adding 55,000 jobs, accounting for more than half of the overall increase. The leisure and hospitality industry increased by 22,000, the manufacturing industry increased by 17,000, and the construction industry increased by 15,000, all of which recorded steady growth. The overall service sector increased by 59,000, and commodity producers contributed 31,000, and the structure was relatively balanced.

However, there have been layoffs in some industries. Financial activity was reduced by 16,000 jobs, professional and commercial services by 11,000, and natural resources and mining by 1,000. From a regional perspective, the Northeast showed outstanding performance, adding 56,000. According to enterprise size, companies with 50 to 499 people increased by 54,000, indicating that medium-sized enterprises are more willing to hire.

In terms of pay, the ADP report shows that the total salary for changing workers increased by 7.3% year over year, and the salary of those who remained in office increased by 4.4%. The overall basic wage rose 3.2% year on year, and total wage growth accelerated to 4.7%. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement: “This is a strong report. After a three-month slowdown, job creation rebounded, and wage growth remained steady.”

This report further confirms the recent statement by several Federal Reserve officials that the labor market is basically stable and balanced after the growth scare in 2025. A stable job market, combined with resilient consumer spending, has enabled the Federal Reserve to focus its policies on fighting continued inflation.

The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark borrowing rate by 25 basis points in early September, the first rate hike since 2023. Since then, many policymakers have described the labor market as “stable and in balance,” and believe that the greater current policy risk is stubborn inflation rather than weak employment.

The market's eyes are now on Friday's government non-farm payrolls report. The report includes public sector recruitment. The Wall Street consensus expects 84,000 new jobs to be added in September, down from 162,000 the previous month, and the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.1%. Some agencies expect the government report to show an increase of about 90,000, which is in line with ADP data.

Overall, the September ADP report painted a stable picture of the labor market: a rebound in recruitment, steady pay, and a fragmented but overall healthy sector. Despite layoffs in finance and professional services, strong growth in education, health, leisure, and manufacturing was enough to offset the impact. This data helps ease market concerns about economic stalling, and also provides support for the Federal Reserve to maintain its austerity trend in a context where inflation is still sticky. The real resilience of the labor market will face further testing as the non-agricultural report approaches.